Description: Abstract: A model for analyzing the probability and severity of default of sovereign entities and banks. The methodology analyzes the risks inherent in the investment of debt of sovereign governments and large financial institutions side-by-side, taking into consideration macroeconomic interactions among the sovereign fiscal and monetary authorities, the financial institutions, and the real economy. The signature aspect of the methodology is that it adapts a Merton-style default model to use explicit measures of sovereign assets and asset volatility.

Description: This is a presentation from 39th Actuarial Research Conference, 8/5-7/2004, University of Iowa in Iowa City, Iowa. The aim of this paper is to consider economic capital for a multi-line insurer and the fair allocation to lines of business. In addition, this paper also allows for a model with assets, liabilities and insolvency exchange option fairly priced, complete markets and no market frictions.

Description: Investment Fallacies: The Fallacy of Independence

Description: Investment Fallacies: A real-world approach to Value at Risk

Description: This discussion looks at principles which should govern the determination of the respective proportions of earnings to be allocated to policyholders and stockholders, the level of contingency reserves and surplus which should be maintained, and looks at the extent to which the mandatory Security Valuation Reserve should affect the level of unassigned surplus.

Description: This session from the 1995 SOA Spring Meeting reviews surplus management strategies. Topics addressed include risk-based capital RBC, reinsurance, growth and profitability, cost of capital, and required surplus.

Description: From the 1985 Valuation Actuary Symposium Discussion of techniques for determining capital requirements needed to support an insurance business, based on the nature of the assets and liabilities on the books and related investment strategies, using ALM modeling

Description: This teaching session was presented as Session 6B at the 1987 Valuation Actuary Symposium. The subject was modeling techniques for use in testing the scenarios being developed by the Canadian Institute of Actuaries, ‘CIA,’ Solvency Standards Committee. The presenters, members of the Committee, have been working on developing a generic modeling approach. Their presentation is limited to the first of three phases of proposed CIA standards for solvency reporting dealing with scenario testing, namely the projection of surplus under various prescribed and selected scenarios.

Description: Describes how the mantra of 'tax cuts will pay for themselves" along with the political unwillingness to cut spending (extant since the 1980s), has led to this increasing debt problem in the U.S., reaching $17 trillion at time of writing. Other countries are behaving in a similar fashion, and it can be only a matter of time before the globe may reach another crisis, this time based on excessive government debt coupled with fewer interested investors.

Description: Investment Fallacies: The Myth of Time Diversification