Description: Discussion of inflation, the real rates of interest and the forecasting of both.

Description: This is a discussion forum covering 2 papers on economic trends and life insurance in 1953. Dr.Simon Kuznets presented a paper entitled Notes on Prospects of Economic Growth in the United States. His paper was directed to two main questions, a What are the prospects for the nation's future economic growth? b What is likely to be the long-term trend in the general price levels during the next two or three decades? The subject of Dr. Raymond W. Goldsmith's paper was The Supply of Savings and the Level of Interest RatesRetrospect and Outlook.

Description: Applies the economic concept of negative externality (where firms profit but create unacceptable social costs) to systemic of financial institutions. Identifies alternatives to the traditional (Pigou) response of taxing the firm.

Description: Summarizes the state of US government balance sheet and defends the view that inflation will not rise sharply in the next few years.

Description: Announcement of this event, to be held May 6-9, 2012. The theme is 'The Actuarial Profession and Social and Economic Development'.

Description: Abstract: A model for analyzing the probability and severity of default of sovereign entities and banks. The methodology analyzes the risks inherent in the investment of debt of sovereign governments and large financial institutions side-by-side, taking into consideration macroeconomic interactions among the sovereign fiscal and monetary authorities, the financial institutions, and the real economy. The signature aspect of the methodology is that it adapts a Merton-style default model to use explicit measures of sovereign assets and asset volatility.

Description: Three consultants offer their views on a pandemic and post-pandemic economic future that awaits Mexico. COVID-19 deepened the contraction of the Mexican economy. As manufacturing and consumption bounce back, sustaineddemand for services can help recovery. But a policy push is needed. The global pandemic came at a time when the Mexican economy had contracted for five straight quarters due to avariety of factors such as deceleration in investment and private consumption and uncertainty around the free tradeagreement with the United States and Canada. The COVID-19 crisis accelerated this trend, resulting in the largest contraction since the Great Depression of 1929.

Description: This discussion at the 1968 Philadephia and Los Angeles Regional Meetings is about currency devaluation in other countries and the effects it has on life insurance, pension funds and company operations in the U.S.

Description: This paper examines the development of inflation and the dilemma the life insurance business faces. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1958, Vol. 10, No. 28.