Description: This paper analyzes the accuracy of the principal models used by U.S. insurance regulators to predict insolvencies in the property-liability insurance industry and compares these models with a relatively new solvency testing approach- cash flow simulation. Specifically, the authors compare the risk-based capital [RBC] system introduced by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners [NAIC] in 1994, the 'FAST' [audit ratio] system used by the NAIC, and a cash flow simulation model developed by the authors. Both the RBC and FAST systems are static, ratio based approaches to solvency testing, whereas the cash flow simulation model implements dynamic financial analysis. Logistic regression analysis is used to test the models for a large sample of solvent and insolvent property-liability insurers, using data from the years 1990-1992 to predict insolvencies over three-year prediction horizons. The authors find that the FAST system dominates RBC as a static method for predicting insurer insolvencies. Further, they find the cash flow simulation variables add significant explanatory power to the regressions and lead to more accurate solvency prediction than the ratio-based models taken alone.

Description: In this paper the author proposes a proof for new formulas that derive exposure formulas of the valuation-schedule type on the basis of the Balducci assumption. In addition he provides a short cut for the coefficients of the terms involving deaths. Then he derives a general exposure formula of the valuation-schedule type that may be used for all mortality studies with an observation period covering an integral number of consecutive years. From ACTUARIAL RESEARCH CLEARING HOUSE, 1980 VOL. 2.

Description: Because actuaries fit models for a variety of situations, particularly with regard to data modifications, it is useful to have a single approach. Though not optimal or exact for a particular model or data structure, the method should be reasonable for most all settings. Such a method is proposed in this article. Actuarial Research Clearing House 2003, VOL. 1

Description: This papers considers the effects of taxing nominal rather than real returns from short term deposits. A system for taxing real returns is developed. The possible results from a change in the method of taxation, to the one proposed in the paper are discussed. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1991, VOL. 1.

Description: Design and future maintenance of an asset portfolio backing a new line of business is critical for proper asset and liability management for that business. Most portfolio optimization methods utilize linear or quadratic programming and require the user to specify the asset and liability attributes and cash flows into the program. The programmer must also supply an objective function to allow the program to find the optimal asset mix for the associated liabilities. Two problems with this approach are that the liability cash flows are fairly static and that one must frequently rebalance the portfolio. An alternative approach would be to develop a corporate model of both the assets and liabilities and incorporate various economic scenarios as input into the model. Asset strategies would be measured against a specific objective function that is calculated by the corporate model. Unfortunately, the majority of maximization algorithms available are very time consuming, and obtaining a reasonable portfolio mix becomes impractical. This paper overcomes this difficulty by using a very rapid optimization method from the chemical engineering profession called the Floppy Triangle. The paper includes an example of the use of this process to determine an optimal portfolio. It also discusses modifications of the algorithm that is required when the shorting of assets is not permitted.

Description: This paper presents the application of the asset share technique of pricing to Home Equity Line of Credit insurance. The paper's objective is to provide useful tools when developing a new HELOC product including projections for marketing and underwriting, distinctions between desirable and undesirable product design features, and development of premium rate structures. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1990, VOL. 2

Description: Six methods are presented for calculating the probability of ultimate ruin where the waiting times between claims are independent and identically distributed. Three of the six use Monte Carlo techniques. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1993, VOL. 1

Description: The main aim of this paper is to apply some of the techniques of modern time series and econometric analysis to analyse investment data in order to better understand the nature of long run relationships in investment series typically used in stochastic investment models. The paper attempts to identify and address fundamental issues that need to be considered before developing a particular stochastic investment model.

Description: An updated and expanded translation of the 1863 Theory of Life Insurance Premium Reserves by Dr. August Zillmer, Stettin, Prussia. This is a seminal paper for the life insurance reserve method used extensively in Europe.

Description: This paper presents Bayesian models for analysis of claim lag data. The analysis of claim runoff patterns investigate the extraction of information on trend and seasonal patterns in incurred claims. This is investigated on the basis of individual group data, and also relative to a larger aggregation of pooled experience. The models are implemented based on Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. The models are applied to examples using simulated claim lag data. From Actuarial Research Clearing House, 2003, Vol. 1.