Description: This presentation is a panel discussion, session number 44PD, from the 2002 Valuation Actuary Symposium, held September 19-20 in Lake Buena Vista, FL. The panelists share their perspectives concerning the current economic environment. They address the impact on the valuation environment and the appointed actuary, statutory and GAAP implications, and the increasing value of actuarial expertise. Topics covered include demographic considerations, rising health-care expenditures, increased investor scrutiny, and the cost of regulation, NAIC developments, solvency and liquidity, and investment opportunities and challenges in the current economic environment. Discussion from participants is included.

Description: This presentation is a panel discussion from the 1991 Annual Meeting of the Society of Actuaries, held October 20-23 in Toronto. The panelists discuss the outlook for the economy for the remainder of the year through 1992, covering the economies of both the United States and Canada, with an emphasis on the United States. With the background of recent world events, they discuss the recent recession and where interest rates are headed, unemployment rates, inflation, and other economic indicators. Discussion from participants is included. From the Record of Society of Actuaries, Volume 17, No. 4A.

Description: 1994 SOA Meeting, San Francisco. In this session Dr. William Freund, chief economist emeritus of the New York Stock Exchange and former chief economist at the Prudential, shared his perspective on the economic outlook.

Description: Investment opportunities are driven by events in the economy and how participants in the financial markets react to those events. This keynote address will highlight current economic themes and their impact on investment opportunities.

Description: This session discusses potential developments in the 1980's with regards to: the impact of the force of competition on price levels and profit margins, growth in the market for life insurance and annuities, profit squeeze on stock companies due to continued high level of inflation, problems which will affect smaller stock companies abilities to compete and/or survive, changes in permanent versus term pricing practices and profit margins during the 1980's, changes in sources of profit and uses of free surplus, and continued attractiveness of insurers as acquisition targets.

Description: The primary focus of this 1997 presentation from the 32nd Actuarial Research Conference is the adaptation of the representative scenario method such that the distribution of the primary rates used for product pricing, are consistent, regardless of the initial random number seed. A preliminary question is how many stochastically generated scenarios are required for consistency. This presentation looks at the implications of: the use of antithetic random normal deviates upon the scenario process, ways of modifying the candidate list, and the choice function within the representative scenario process.

Description: Speaker, a noted economist and former Presidential-administration consultant, discusses the impact of politics on economics, and economic performance over the last eight years, touching on the effect of recent market volatility on pension-plan assets [during the Q&A]. From the 1988 Record of Society of Actuaries, Vol. 14, No. 1.

Description: On October 30, 2006, the UK government's Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change made startling claims about the present value today of climate change effects predicted to emerge primarily 150 years or more in the future. The ensuing debate included challenges to and defenses of the particular methodology used and parameter values selected to perform the discounting of future values. Noticing an overlooked faux pas in the Stern Review, this presentation uncovers the likely motivation for choosing the most mystifying of the parameters values, and provides a lesson on the underpinnings of the basic tool of actuarial science.

Description: This 1997 presentation from the 32nd Actuarial Research Conference develops a stochastic generator for the generation of scenarios of the S&P 500 index, dividend yield, consumer price index, and U.S. Treasury yields. The authors first create a set of 'stylized facts' for these series. They estimate statistical models for these series. These in-sample statistical models are themselves not suitable for generation of scenarios for decision making, but instead are additional 'stylized facts' that assist in model development. The 'best' statistical model according to standard statistical model selection criteria can easily lead to a model that is highly unsuitable for generation of scenarios for decision making. The authors develop a stochastic generator that is suitable for decision making under uncertainty.

Description: This panel discussion session presents social indicators using a variety of statistical approaches and relates them to societal changes. The concept of using mortality data as a social indicator is also discussed.