Description: 2021 Life Meeting - Session 5C: Assumption Setting in an Uncertain World 8.31.21 Recording

Description: Data science, predictive analytics and AI are certainly the buzzwords these days. They are heavily used and developed in underwriting and marketing but for most actuaries, they might/may as well be science fiction. The presenters will demonstrate how a normal actuary can utilize data science techniques in their daily job function without forming an official data science team within a company. It can be done in a gradual fashion so that normal business is not disrupted and improvements are made over time. The usage of data science techniques will include demonstrations of the following areas: - Regression analysis - Economic scenario generator - Experience study - Data quality checks - Inforce compression for explicit hedging

Description: CPT, NCCI, ICD, CCI, DRG, APC, PTP – understanding healthcare claims involve a dizzying array of code sets and payment methodologies, and yet the claim form is the intersection of health plan affordability, provider payment, and data analysis. This webcast will cover: • The code sets used in medical coding • Types of correct coding policies implemented by CMS and commercial payers • Payment integrity strategies to drive health plan affordability • Data analytics approaches leveraging medical coding knowledge

Description: The famous 80/20 rule in data science states that only 20% of your time working with data is spent driving insightful business analytics. The rest of your time is spent trying to query, clean and organize your data. Even with this knowledge, the majority of actuarial training/focus is on the 20 percent. This session takes a different approach, focusing solely on speeding up your work on the other 80 percent. Practical examples will be part of a code walkthrough in R.

Description: After a sustained period of mortality improvement, U.S. population mortality improvement has stagnated in recent years. The presenters will discuss mortality improvement trends in the U.S. population and the causes of death contributing to these trends. U.S. population cause of death trends will be analyzed and compared to trends in the insured population. Mortality rates for major causes of death will be compared between the U.S. population and the insured population. In addition, assumption setting for both older age and later duration mortality as well as mortality improvement will be covered.

Description: The COVID-19 pandemic has had an impact on all aspects of daily life and its impact extends to how disability incidence may play out in the future. Product profitability will be shaped by how morbidity patterns, interest rate levels and other key drivers will play out into the future. In this session, our panel will discuss COVID’s impact on IDI morbidity experience as observed over the past 18 months, offer comparisons and insights in light of other insurance lines of business, and share emerging information on the on-going effects of Long COVID. Highlights will also include how regional differences and implications for insurers as the industry moves further into the COVID vaccine era.

Description: In 2020 the Actuarial Innovation and Technology Steering Committee held a data visualization contest. Entries showed a variety of strengths including smart use of tools, user-friendly dashboards, and displays paired with actuarial analysis that can lead an end-user through a process of discovery. In this webcast a data visualization expert will review the winning entries with the contestants. We'll discuss how the different strengths of these entries can be combined to create a powerful tool for communication and understanding.

Description: Renal disease is a very heterogenous medical condition whose end state is dialysis, a recurring cost intensive medical condition. Dialysis cost is one of the major medical cost drivers in USA. Insufficient and improper care management in the early stages of CKD (chronic kidney disease) leads to early incidence of end stage renal disease (ESRD) among CKD patients which not only leads to high medical costs, but also reflects poor health quality.

Description: Emerging Applications of ESG Methods offers ground-up insights on cutting edge applications of economic scenario generation. The course will focus on the incorporation of climate change risk in scenario modeling and investment applications of ESGs. The following topics will be covered: Approaches to climate risk modeling. Climate risk is very different than classical financial economic risk. Radical uncertainty is amenable to scenario analysis and lack of data. Building special deterministic scenarios that go beyond NGFS requirements as well as bespoke scenarios. Holistic Approach to Climate Risk Modeling. Overview of different Climate Risk Modeling Applications. Use of ESG scenarios for Strategic Asset Allocation (SAA). Liquidity risk management.

Description: One common barrier to employing GLM modeling is the lack of sufficient data. This limitation often comes from the combination of the considerations in ASOP No. 25 “Credibility Procedures” and the fact that GLMs assign full credibility to the data. Explore the possibilities of credibility-based regression by expanding the intended purpose of modeling analysis from producing a single model as output to producing data insights, credible differences, and a range of reasonable models.