Description: Estimation of hazard rates at extremely old ages poses serious challenges to researchers: 1 The observed mortality deceleration may be at least partially an artifact of mixing different birth cohorts with different mortality heterogeneity effect 2 Standard assumptions of hazard rate estimates may be invalid when risk of death is extremely high at old ages 3 Ages of very old people may be exaggerated. In this paper we propose an alternative approach, which gives an opportunity to resolve the first two problems by compiling data for more homogeneous single-year birth cohorts with hazard rates measured at narrow monthly age intervals. Possible ways of resolving the third problem of hazard rate estimation were elaborated.

Description: Estimation of hazard rates at extremely old ages poses serious challenges to researchers: 1 The observed mortality deceleration may be at least partially an artifact of mixing different birth cohorts with different mortality heterogeneity effect 2 Standard assumptions of hazard rate estimates may be invalid when risk of death is extremely high at old ages 3 Ages of very old people may be exaggerated. In this paper we propose an alternative approach, which gives an opportunity to resolve the first two problems by compiling data for more homogeneous single-year birth cohorts with hazard rates measured at narrow monthly age intervals. Possible ways of resolving the third problem of hazard rate estimation were elaborated.

Description: Recent trends in mortality suggest that future gains in life expectancy will occur after age 80. This fact stresses the need and the importance to obtain precise measures of mortality at the highest ages, which are always subject to uncertainty due to misreporting of age at death.

Description: Discussion on Living to 100 Session 4B. Papers presented: Typology and Review of Measures of Human Aging, Longevity and Superlongevity with Applications to US Data and Some Implications for US Public Programs and, Mortality Measurements at Advanced Ages: A Study of the Social Security Master Death File

Description: We propose an age-shift model to modify the LC model and deal with the problem of parameters. The proposed method attains smaller estimation errors with respect to mean absolute percentage error or mean square error. We also apply the proposed age-shift model to the mortality rates of these four countries to evaluate the longevity risk in annuity products by measuring life expectancy.

Description: Transcript of the Q&A period from Session 4B. Papers presented: Typology and Review of Measures of Human Aging, Longevity and Superlongevity with Applications to US Data and Some Implications for US Public Programs and, Mortality Measurements at Advanced Ages: A Study of the Social Security Master Death File

Description: This paper develops the binomial version of the Lee-Carter model and provides a comparative study of simulation strategies for assessing risk in mortality rate predictions and associated estimates of life expectancy and annuity values in both period and cohort frameworks.

Description: This paper introduces the predictive modeling tools to mortality research. The predictive modeling is applied to study how multiple risk drivers such as demographic characteristics and social and economic status impact the mortality improvement of the advanced age population. The paper provides both the theoretical frameworks and the application aspects of the predictive modeling process. As the result, a mortality risk score was derived in differentiating the mortality risk for the advanced age population.

Description: Discussion of Session 5B: Papers presented: Data Validation and Measurement of Cohort Mortality among Centenarians in Quebec and Physical and Socioeconomic Characteristics at a Young Age as Predictors of Survival

Description: This paper presents recent trends in obesity prevalence in significant population segments, including overall effects by age, gender and certain racial and ethnic groups, and discusses the ways in which obesity can influence mortality in each of these segments. It provides a synthesis of reported mortality experience relating to these behaviors by risk factors and diseases that will affect any mortality projection.