Description: The Society of Actuaries Predictive Analytics and Futurism Section, the Financial Reporting Section, the Investment Section and the Canadian Institute of Actuaries are pleased to release a new and improved version of the 2005 Society of Actuaries (SOA) Delphi study of four economic variables. Performed by Theodore J. Gordon, the research acquaints actuaries with the application of futures methods that could supplement traditional actuarial forecasting practices.

Description: The Society of Actuaries Predictive Analytics and Futurism Section, the Financial Reporting Section, the Investment Section and the Canadian Institute of Actuaries are pleased to release a new and improved version of the 2005 Society of Actuaries (SOA) Delphi study of four economic variables. Performed by Theodore J. Gordon, the research acquaints actuaries with the application of futures methods that could supplement traditional actuarial forecasting practices.

Description: This paper introduces actuaries and others to dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models, a type of macroeconomic model. Authored by Kailan Shang, the paper illustrates how DSGE models can be used in economic scenario generation to reflect the cause and effect relationships that occur in the economic system.

Description: This paper develops the theory of the measurement of interest rate risks from its foundations, beginning with the question of which asset values market or book are economically relevant and therefore at risk. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1985, Vol. 37.

Description: The method described in this paper is to allocate surplus to each category of business and reserves in proportion to its estimated effect on an insurer's surplus variation. Risk load for each category of business is then selected so that the return on allocated surplus for each category is equal to the overall return on surplus. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1993, VOL. 3.

Description: Appendix 2 from the research report entitled 'Exploration of Reputational Risk from the Perspective of a Variety of Stakeholders.'

Description: The theme of this presentation relates to solving portfolio selection problems using linear and fractional programming. Two key contributions: 1. Generalization of the CVaR linear optimization framework. 2. Equivalences among four formulations of Coherent Distortion Risk Mearures optimization problems. From Actuarial Research Clearing House, 2012, Vol. 1.

Description: This report describes and demonstrates a method to understand reputational risk that an insurance company can apply to the unique circumstances of the insurance firm. This method applies a policy-capturing survey with scenario analysis to generate insight into reputational risk from the perspective of a variety of stakeholders. Also included is instruction for spreadsheet-based query and reporting to facilitate the use of the information in the risk management function.

Description: This presentation provided an analysis of investment guarantees in equity-linked products. There was an overview of the data and models in use. In addition an actuarial approach to left-tail analysis was presented as well as a dynamic hedging approach. From Actuarial Research Clearing House, 2012, Vol. 1.

Description: This paper investigates the implications of using the Basel II motivated Advanced Measurement Approaches as a method to assess operational risk capital charges for banks and insurance companies with regard to U.S. regulations. The AMA developed in the paper uses actuarial loss models complemented by the extreme value theory to determine the empirical probability distribution function of the aggregated capital charges in the context of various classes of copulas. From Actuarial Research Clearing House, 2006.