Description: Investment Fallacies: The Fallacy of the Fed Model

Description: Argues renewable energy will displace fossil fuels, leading to investment opportunities and risks

Description: The purpose of this paper is to survey some new results concerning the term structure of interest rates and discuss actuarial applications. The term structure of interest rates exhibits the relationship among the yields on default free debt instruments of different maturities. Although there is a considerable volume of literature dealing with the determinants of the term structure the analysis has until recently been presented for the most part in a deterministic i.e. non- stochastic framework. This constrasts with the treatment of capital assets where equilibrium prices have been obtained under the assumption that returns on these assets are random variables.

Description: The paper demonstrates that the most popular rationalization for evolving glide paths is flawed and should be discarded. The paper also demonstrates that glide paths should generally evolve for investors that endeavor to optimize outcomes and reevaluate their portfolios regularly.

Description: Risk management theory prescribes a few legitimate reasons for management to hedge corporate revenues and reduce income volatility. In this paper we will use the oil tanker industry to illustrate some of these strategic considerations and how management can account for them in their decisions regarding whether and how much to hedge. Further work is needed to incorporate these considerations into a broader theoretical framework. Presented at 2010 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, Society of Actuaries, April 12-15, 2010.

Description: In this paper, chapter V of the 1987 Valuation Actuary Handbook, the authors start with a discussion of how the recent economic environment with volatile interest rates has changed the valuation and surplus management process to one more dependent on actuarial judgment. In a discussion of surplus policy, the authors identify four “layers” of surplus which have been identified by scenario testing. These surplus layers, along with policy reserves, are based on specific invested assets. The paper discusses implications for the future and notes the actuary’s ability to advise management on surplus adequacy is a basic tool of risk management.

Description: The purpose of the article is to summarize the results and conclusions of the C-1 Risk Task Force Report prepared for the Committee on Valuation and Related Areas. A key question: Is the risk to insurance companies of defaults on junk bonds sufficient to justify increasing required surplus levels?

Description: The purpose of the article is to highlight how a person or organization can excel in both a highly-competitive expert-driven environment and one where the environment is less so. One should focus on what can be done well and delegate the remaining tasks to those who are better at performing them. One should understand the environment they are operating in, how it impacts them, and how it may change through time. The principles have application to investment management, investment performance, organizational performance, business development, career progression and economics.

Description: Investment Fallacies: The Misconceptions of Retirement Risks

Description: E-book contains 16 topical essays that express the opinions and thoughts of a number of authors on the subject of Investment Fallacies.