Description: This paper presents an algorithm for approximating the probability of ruin for a Poisson process - which is often used to model an aggregate claims process.

Description: Back in the day, when data was scarce and computers were slow, actuaries were forced to use simple methods to account for risk. By far, the most common method was to add a margin, usually 5% to a “best estimate” calculation. Remarkedly, this method still works quite well in the aggregate. The problem is that, in many cases, decisions today require a more in-depth analysis. For example, how big a risk is a health plan really taking if it lowers its premiums by 10% to attract more members? This session will discuss techniques for measuring risk in today’s environment. Speakers will also share the results from the 5/50 research project, which forms the foundation for the techniques.

Description: This abstract describes a paper that considers a general risk model in which both the claim and income gain arrivals follow Poisson processes.

Description: This abstract describes a paper that studies Gerber-Shiu functions and dividend payments in an insurance risk model driven by a spectrally negative Levy process of bounded variation.

Description: This risk bulletin, published by the Society of Actuaries, provides insights and expertise on critical business issues from industry leading enterprise risk management actuaries.