Description: The direct and indirect effects of the pandemic have impacted many actuaries’ work since the spring of 2020. This article addresses three considerations actuaries should account for when using risk evaluation models which are focused on projecting remote, highly unlikely losses: model effectiveness, asset risk, and insurance (mortality and mortality) risk.

Description: The Committee on Economic Statistics of the Canadian Institute of Actuaries has recommended that the Institute sponsor an Economic Forecasting Board composed of actuaries and economists. Its role would be to develop formal projections of interest rates, inflation rates, productivity and wages. This article discusses the role of such a board, the purposes for the projections, and the potential roadblocks to accomplishing this.

Description: The Society of Actuaries’ Project Oversight Group for research on economic assumptions has prepared a survey seeking input on economic assumptions needed to make a projection of a company's operation.

Description: Regression to the mean is a phenomenon that arises when comparing sequential data points. It states that when an initial observation is extreme or an outlier, future observations will be closer to the average. Health care actuaries need to understand and be able to mitigate the effects of regression to the mean to avoid misapplying predictive models or misstating measurements of historical effects.

Description: Consensus of viewpoints from a group discussion on economic forecasting at the March meeting of the Canadian Institute of Actuaries.

Description: Discussion of several short stories by featured author Steve Mathys. Mathys was the winner of the 10th Speculative Fiction Contest Forecasting and Futurism Section prize.

Description: Description of the vast variety of predictive analytics topics covered by the Forecasting & Futurism section and introduction to the July 2015 issue of the newsletter.

Description: Feature article discussing the difficult situation of actuarial forecasting with little or no date.

Description: This teaching session is about conveying to users of models and forecasts how uncertain the outcome of stochastic projections really is.

Description: This article offers a critique of explanatory text and principal economic and demographic assumption tables from the 2003 Annual report of the Board of Trustees of the OASDI Trust Fund. From Pension Section News, March 2004, Issue No. 54.