Description: Presented at April 1986 Spring Meeting. This session discussion is about the techniques for understanding and analyzing trends in medical care, including: utilization and cost components, analysis of cyclical behavior, use of econometric models, and aggregate trend vs. employer-specific needs.

Description: Presented at June 2002 Spring Meeting. A noted expert with a degree from the graduate program in Studies of the Future at the University of Houston-Clear Lake discusses long-term forecasting and planning, the future of information technology and technology transfer, strategic planning and the development of future scenarios.

Description: This session will discuss how the business environment will change even more in the next ten years than it has in the last ten. From Session 56PD of the New Orleans Annual Meeting.

Description: Presented at October 1996 Annual Meeting. This session presents a forecasting model of economic assumptions that are inputs to projections of the Social Security system. Social Security projections are made to help policymakers understand the financial stability of the system.

Description: Responds to questions received during the webcast with regards to modeling long term medical trends for valuation purposes. Questions cover testing the model against publicly traded companies, the calculation of growth rate in the model, the income multiplier as the population ages, model relevance to Canada, factoring in of extra disease burdens, exclusion of aging in the model, and the effect of the globalization of health care.

Description: On October 30, 2006, the UK government's Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change made startling claims about the present value today of climate change effects predicted to emerge primarily 150 years or more in the future. The ensuing debate included challenges to and defenses of the particular methodology used and parameter values selected to perform the discounting of future values. Noticing an overlooked faux pas in the Stern Review, this presentation uncovers the likely motivation for choosing the most mystifying of the parameters values, and provides a lesson on the underpinnings of the basic tool of actuarial science.

Description: Presented at Annual Meeting October 1986. Discusses: Reasonableness of cost projections in the 1986 OASDI Trustees Report, Possible policy alternatives in response to the higher cost projected for years after 2020, How to reduce the variability in cost trends due to economic and demographic changes, Financing implications of differences and similarities in cost trends between Social Security pensions and private pensions, paper, 'Components of Trends in Social Security Costs' by Francisco R. Bayo, Milton P. Glanz and Charles L. Trowbridge.

Description: This session is from the 1976 Washington D.C. Meeting and discusses qualitative and quantitative models for forecasting. The session is a general teaching session and not for experts.

Description: In Medicaid rate development, actuaries have not historically shared models that developed the margin (i.e., underwriting gain) assumption. This is unfortunate, given the margin assumption is one of the most critical components of the rate development in ensuring financial solvency of the Medicaid managed care organizations (MCOs). In this session, we will discuss the primary components of the this assumption and will share working models that help actuaries quantify these components—including the cost of capital and risk (or contingency) margin. We expect a lively discussion as we “open the black box” and discuss these actuarial assumptions in the public for the first time.

Description: Presented at May 1986 Spring Meeting. This session discussion is about the purposes, tools and methods available, scenario testing, updating, special issues and problems. This discussion anticipates the development of new Valuation Actuary reserve adequacy opinion requirements.