Description: This article discusses an upcoming SOA/CAS sponsored project regarding the Modeling of Economic Series Coordinated with Interest Rate Scenarios.

Description: This article describes the proposal selected for research involving the modeling of economic series. The proposal submitted by the research team of Kevin Ahlgrim of Bradley University, Stephen D'Arcy of the University of Illinios and Richard Gorvett of Zurich North America was selected.

Description: Presents a summary of the results of the Economic Assumptions Guidance Task Force survey regarding use of economic assumptions in insurance modeling.

Description: This publication is intended to serve as an in-depth primer on economic scenario generators. The first half of the publication provides more general information on the nature of economic scenario generators—what they are, how they evolved, how they address regulatory and business needs in the insurance and pension industries. It also addresses essential features of a good economic scenario generator, and provides some detailed guidance on important aspects of financial market model specification, model calibration and model validation considerations to assure that the ESG will produce simulation results that are relevant, sufficiently robust, and realistically reflect market dynamics. The second half of the publication provides technical discussion of some of the essential financial markets aspects of a comprehensive ESG. Description of arbitrage-free considerations, the role of risk-neutral scenarios, and default-free interest rate models are explored with some of the underlying mathematics necessary to understand these considerations. Final chapters provide some important considerations relating to corporate bond models and equity index models, and how these considerations may extend to international and global interactions.

Description: This is a brief on a publication intended to serve as an in-depth primer on economic scenario generators.

Description: 2011 SOA IFRS Seminar, Hong Kong. This is an Excel spreadsheet associated with Session 40 on 'Economic Scenario Generators' of the 2011 SOA IFRS Seminar held in Hong Kong. The spreadsheet facilitated the learning objectives of this workshop about ESG.

Description: Presented at June 2002 Spring Meeting. A noted expert with a degree from the graduate program in Studies of the Future at the University of Houston-Clear Lake discusses long-term forecasting and planning, the future of information technology and technology transfer, strategic planning and the development of future scenarios.

Description: The SOA’s Committee on Finance Research recently made available the results of a research study that explores economic series and provides an Excel-based tool for generating future economic scenarios. From Risks and Rewards Newsletter, August 2005, Issue No. 47.

Description: This session at the SOA 2003 Washington, DC Spring Meeting focuses on the issues involved in building a scenario generator. It covers the data set used to develop and calibrate the generator as well as a discussion of different approaches and their features. Implementation is addressed along with potential pitfalls.

Description: 1998 Valuation Actuary Symposium. The panelists discussed applying economic scenario generators in the life insurance business, a particular generator that has been developed at SS&C Technology Company, a way of reducing the number of scenarios to get the maximum amount of information, and what to look for in a software vendor.