Description: We propose an age-shift model to modify the LC model and deal with the problem of parameters. The proposed method attains smaller estimation errors with respect to mean absolute percentage error or mean square error. We also apply the proposed age-shift model to the mortality rates of these four countries to evaluate the longevity risk in annuity products by measuring life expectancy.

Description: The article provides a complete and rigorous analysis based on calculus for the topics in the theory of compound interest: the monotone convergence properties of the rates of interest and discount payable m times per interest conversion period in relation to the force of interest, the monotone convergence properties of the present value and accumulated value of an ordinary annuity with m payments per interest conversion period in relation to those of a continuously paying ordinary annuity and a method for approximating the present value of an ordinary annuity, or an increasing annuity with m payments per interest conversion period, by accumulating, at compound interest for the fraction m - l/2m of an interest conversion period, the present value of the same type of annuity with one payment per interest conversion period.

Description: This paper develops a model of annuity mortality that facilitates a more thorough evaluation of the issues of policyholder antiselection and insurance company response. Aging occurs as an annuitant's health state changes. Death occurs either as terminal health state or by accident. By knowing the current health state, the annuitant or insurance company can improve its knowledge about life expectancy.

Description: This paper investigates the use of models of dependent mortality for determining annuity values. We discuss a broad class of parametric models using a bivariate survivorship function called a copula. Using data from a large insurance company to illustrate our methods, we calculate maximum likelihood estimates to calibrate the rnodel.

Description: Presented at the Living to 100 Symposium, January 2011. This study explores increasing life expectancy by examining the basic properties of survival curves. Specifically, the author checks for signs of mortality compression, using a non-traditional approach. The results indicate that human longevity is likely to increase, at least for a while, and longevity risk should be seriously considered in pricing annuity products. Some suggestions for dealing with the longevity risk are also proposed.

Description: We apply grouped functional time series forecasting methods to produce point forecasts of mortality rates at older ages and price fixed-term annuities.

Description: Interest sensitive products including SPDAs can be thought of as spread lending business. The purpose of the paper is to introduce the excess spread approach to measuring the profitability of nonparticipating insurance products. The article describes how the excess spread approach is used to price and manage the products and its risks. From Society of Actuaries Reporting Monograph, M-AS99-1.