Description: This paper represents a brief progress report on research, being sponsored by the Casualty Actuarial Society CAS and the Society of Actuaries SOA, in the area of modeling of economic series. In particular, research is being undertaken to provide a foundation for the actuarial community’s modeling of a variety of economic variables, including interest rates, equity returns, inflation, unemployment rates, and real estate price levels. The specific objectives of this research are to provide a summary of the literature in the area of economic scenario modeling, identify data sources and methodologies in this area useful to the actuarial profession, and produce working software for economic modeling, including appropriate documentation, to be made available to the general actuarial community in order to allow actuaries to use and build upon this research.

Description: In this note, we rearrange the statement and the proof of a theorem in Greville. The presentation appears to be more compact the materials, however, are not new.].

Description: A new reason for the inherent instability of the insurance business can be found in the literature of anthropology. The theory of plural rationalities, also known as Cultural Theory of Risk or simply Cultural Theory, posits that the world is populated by people with four fundamentally different attitudes toward risk. Presented at 2010 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, Society of Actuaries, April 12-15, 2010.

Description: In the copula literature there are many bivariate distribution families but very few higher dimensional ones. Moreover, most of these are difficult to work with. Some of the bivariate families can be extended to more dimensions but in general the construction of distribution functions with more than two variables is a difficult problem. This paper introduces a construction method that is straightforward to implement and can produce multivariate distribution functions of any dimension.

Description: This paper considers the ERM problem as an adaptation and stability problem of complex system development. The basic approach of W. Ross Ashby and its development by S. Beer are applied. The author advances the cybernetic functional feedback model as applied to the integrated ERM structural mechanism. Such formulation of the ERM problems seems promising to correctly detail and structurally integrate the various issues, including operational and financial systems linkage, key adaptation parameter of time and its different periods, optimal activity and others.

Description: This is a study on the Nesbitt formula and the variants to this formula.

Description: Contemporary ERM has moved from an event-based view of risk to a hierarchical, systems-based approach. In order to operationalize such an approach, a methodology is proposed in this paper that draws on phylogenetic approaches that have been successfully developed for biological evolution. The technique and process provide an insight into the lineage, pace and impact of external conditions on the evolution of risks. They also provide a unique and rational classification of risk in an enterprise that can be used to optimize risk management resources. An example of a fictitious insurance company is used to illustrate the approach. Presented at 2010 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, Society of Actuaries, April 12-15, 2010.

Description: Managing corporate defense is therefore an extremely responsible station, as it involves the responsibility for adequately defending the interests of all of the stakeholders of an organization, both in terms of monetary and human implications.

Description: During the last decade, a vast activity had been observed in generalizing of the classical discrete distributions. The main idea was to apply the extended versions fur modeling different kinds of dependent count or frequency data structure in various fields. In the present paper we suggest extensions of the classical univariate geometric, negative binomial, Poisson, Bernoulli, binomial and logarithmic series distributions, by including an additional parameter. It has a natural interpretation in terms of zero-inflation, and because of this we named the corresponding generalized versions adding inflated-parameter.

Description: Non-consequentiality is quite consequential for the claims made for the applicability of Risk Theory RT to decision problems that are not transparently tactical or wholly instrumental. On the negative side, RT is not normative or even a complete heuristic in such contexts. The author takes strong exception to the common tendencies, A to link risk theory with welfarism and versions of utilitarianism, and B to claim that with or without but especially with such linkage RT is normative in both moral and rational analysis, choice and action.