Description: This session is about health insurance cash-flow testing through liability and asset modeling for individual disability income insurance and health valuations. From Record of Society of Actuaries Vol. 19, No. 1B.

Description: The presenters will discuss predictive analytics as applied to recent group life and disability experience studies and other applications.

Description: A simple short-term disability model is developed, where the loss process is comprised of two processes: new claims process and continuing claims process. This results in a surplus function with stationary dependent increments. Three dimensional transitional probabilities are needed to model the transitions of this non-Markovian process. An approximating model with stationary independent increments is found. The approximating model leads to bounds for the finite probability of ruin. Numerical comparisons are made.