Description: The United States has received severe negative press the last several years regarding its massive U.S. federal government debt, currently estimated as of April 2007 at about $8.9 trillion. This article looks at the U.S. debt relative to other countries and also explores the impact on U.S. investments.

Description: To inform and educate stakeholders for health plans and insurers on novel ways to optimize reinsurance structures to meet capital related goals and boost RBC and liquidity ratios. In lieu of traditional market-based financial instruments involving equity and/or debt, a quota share transaction can be used with potentially far more attractive terms and achieving essentially the same result.

Description: During March 2020, COVID-19 concerns escalated in the U.S. and lockdown measures were announced. Market returns in March 2020 were quite extreme and choppy, alternating between days of huge gains and losses. As investors prepare for the future, it is important to understand whether these volatility surges and sharp movements are understood and captured by commonly used models. In this article, we will explore equity market performance in 2020 using the S&P 500 Total Return Index (SP500TR) and the relevant equity modeling implications

Description: After a very challenging year, actuaries need to look back and consider the lessons learned. Have we returned to where we were, or have we moved on to a new norm? What does the COVID-19 pandemic market data tell us that will help us to prepare for future global crises?

Description: Article from The Actuary, April 1985, Volume 20, No. 4 that discusses from usury to interest. Usury definitions are 1 The lending out of money with an interest charge for its use: the taking or practice of taking interest 2 An unconscionable or exorbitant rate or amount of interest, specifically interest in excess of a legal rate charged to a borrower for the use of money. Between definitions 1 and 2 are 2000 years of Western history, beginning with Biblical strictures against charging any interest and reaching today's sophisticated credit economy, in which interest, per se, is accepted and only excessive interest is illegal.

Description: This article provides a retrospective on investment risk management while highlighting actuarial tools used by portfolio risk managers.

Description: This is a continuation of an article published for the speculative future contest in 2023. It mentions how the collapse of China would cause a global recession in 2029 due to the current and predicted geopolitical climate in 2023.

Description: Have you ever wondered why patterns persist in the stock market but never change our expected return? Efficient-market theory has been attacked by many sides, especially due to the existence of irrational investors.

Description: “What is the likelihood of market crashes? This article seeks to provide an answer to this and related questions by focusing mainly on the crash of October 1987. Specifically, we shall seek answers to three questions: 1. Given the history of market returns, was the crash of ‘87 unusual? 2. How do conditional variance models such as GARCH behave around periods of extreme moves in the market? 3. What is the impact of the crash on backtesting and performance evaluation?” Editor’s Note: The following article originally appeared in the Winter 1998 issue of The BARRA Newsletter, Horizon, and is reprinted here with permission.

Description: This article introduces the reader to probabilistic methods used to model interactions in the financial market place. Three topics are specifically discussed, two concern modeling methods and the other concerns data analysis methods.