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A Study of the Use of the Delphi Method, A Futures Research Technique for Forecasting Selected U.S. Economic Variables and Determining Rationales for Judgements
Futures Research Technique for Forecasting Selected U.S. Economic Variables and Determining Rationales for ... 1. Increase in CPI, 2. 10 Year Treasury Yield, 3. S&P500 Total Rate of Return, and 4.Corporate Baa ...- Authors: Society of Actuaries
- Date: Oct 2005
- Competency: External Forces & Industry Knowledge
- Topics: Economics; Modeling & Statistical Methods>Forecasting
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Appendix B Round 2 Questionnaire Study of Selected Economic Variables Using the Delphi Method - Delphi Report
(annual increase in CPI, 10 Year Treasury yield, S&P 500 total return, Corporate Baa yield) and the factors ... Yields S&P 500 Total Rate of Return Corporate Baa Spot Yields All data are for the U.S. and brief ...- Authors: Society of Actuaries
- Date: Oct 2005
- Competency: External Forces & Industry Knowledge
- Topics: Economics; Modeling & Statistical Methods>Forecasting
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Appendix F - Round 1 Future Developments - Delphi Report
natural resources. Foreign Affairs • The U.S. reasserts and further develops its moral, political ... Collapse of US dollar as world reserve currency. • U.S. dollar weakens considerably from present levels ...- Authors: Society of Actuaries
- Date: Oct 2005
- Competency: External Forces & Industry Knowledge
- Topics: Economics; Modeling & Statistical Methods>Forecasting
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Appendix D - Round 2 Reasons for Projections - Delphi Report
resulting higher wages and prices for exports to the U.S. • 5. Growth in the number of elderly and concomitant ... resulting higher wages and prices for exports to the U.S. • 4. The retired baby boom generation demanding ...- Authors: Society of Actuaries
- Date: Oct 2005
- Competency: External Forces & Industry Knowledge
- Topics: Economics; Modeling & Statistical Methods>Forecasting
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Appendix C - Round 1 Reasons for Projections - Delphi Report
service based. Even more importantly the late 1990’s experience has inoculated the central bank against ... materialize if productivity growth slowed to 1970’s norms, and rising demand in developing countries led ...- Authors: Society of Actuaries
- Date: Oct 2005
- Competency: External Forces & Industry Knowledge
- Topics: Economics; Modeling & Statistical Methods>Forecasting
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Appendix E - Round 2: Comments on Application of Judegmental Methods - Delphi Report
Appendix E - Round 2: ... Respondent 7 • All Respondent 9 • Lower S&P by 100 bps. Respondent 13 • Studying ... interest rates. • Less influence – outliers on S&P 500. Respondent 9 • We need to utilize ...- Authors: Society of Actuaries
- Date: Oct 2005
- Competency: External Forces & Industry Knowledge
- Topics: Economics; Modeling & Statistical Methods>Forecasting