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A Study of the Use of the Delphi Method, A Futures Research Technique for Forecasting Selected U.S. Economic Variables and Determining Rationales for Judgements
Futures Research Technique for Forecasting Selected U.S. Economic Variables and Determining Rationales for ... 1. Increase in CPI, 2. 10 Year Treasury Yield, 3. S&P500 Total Rate of Return, and 4.Corporate Baa ...- Authors: Society of Actuaries
- Date: Oct 2005
- Competency: External Forces & Industry Knowledge
- Topics: Economics; Modeling & Statistical Methods>Forecasting
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Summary Of Social Security Administration Projections Of The OASDI System
methods used by the Social Security Administration's Office of the Chief Actuary are important. The resulting ... connection with the Social Security Advisory Board's 1999 Technical Panel on Methods and Assumptions. A ...- Authors: Edward Frees
- Date: Jan 2000
- Competency: External Forces & Industry Knowledge
- Publication Name: Actuarial Research Clearing House
- Topics: Modeling & Statistical Methods>Forecasting; Pensions & Retirement>Assumptions and methods; Social Insurance>Social Security
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Appendix B Round 2 Questionnaire Study of Selected Economic Variables Using the Delphi Method - Delphi Report
(annual increase in CPI, 10 Year Treasury yield, S&P 500 total return, Corporate Baa yield) and the factors ... Yields S&P 500 Total Rate of Return Corporate Baa Spot Yields All data are for the U.S. and brief ...- Authors: Society of Actuaries
- Date: Oct 2005
- Competency: External Forces & Industry Knowledge
- Topics: Economics; Modeling & Statistical Methods>Forecasting
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Projected Cost Analysis of Potential Medicare Pharmacy Plan Designs
Projected Cost Analysis of Potential Medicare Pharmacy Plan Designs Research report sponsored ... cost estimates per member per month, continuance table data, and projected annual costs to the government ...- Authors: Lynette Trygstad, Timothy Feeser, Corey Berger
- Date: Jul 2003
- Competency: External Forces & Industry Knowledge; Leadership>Change management; Professional Values>Public interest representation; Results-Oriented Solutions>Actionable recommendations; Strategic Insight and Integration>Influence decisions; Technical Skills & Analytical Problem Solving>Problem analysis and definition
- Topics: Economics>Health economics; Health & Disability>Public financing - Health & Disability; Modeling & Statistical Methods>Forecasting; Public Policy; Social Insurance>Medicare; Technology & Applications>Analytics and informatics
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Collateralized Debt Obligations: Reducing Loss or Market Risk via Mortgage Assistance
consideration that the infusion is exogenous (i.e. from the U.S. Government), it is of interest to also consider ... trajectory (37% allowed to defaulted threshold). In Table 1, the amount infused and the percentage of pool ...- Authors: Michael A Ekhaus
- Date: Mar 2010
- Competency: External Forces & Industry Knowledge
- Topics: Economics>Financial economics; Modeling & Statistical Methods>Forecasting
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Appendix F - Round 1 Future Developments - Delphi Report
natural resources. Foreign Affairs • The U.S. reasserts and further develops its moral, political ... Collapse of US dollar as world reserve currency. • U.S. dollar weakens considerably from present levels ...- Authors: Society of Actuaries
- Date: Oct 2005
- Competency: External Forces & Industry Knowledge
- Topics: Economics; Modeling & Statistical Methods>Forecasting
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Appendix D - Round 2 Reasons for Projections - Delphi Report
resulting higher wages and prices for exports to the U.S. • 5. Growth in the number of elderly and concomitant ... resulting higher wages and prices for exports to the U.S. • 4. The retired baby boom generation demanding ...- Authors: Society of Actuaries
- Date: Oct 2005
- Competency: External Forces & Industry Knowledge
- Topics: Economics; Modeling & Statistical Methods>Forecasting
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Appendix C - Round 1 Reasons for Projections - Delphi Report
service based. Even more importantly the late 1990’s experience has inoculated the central bank against ... materialize if productivity growth slowed to 1970’s norms, and rising demand in developing countries led ...- Authors: Society of Actuaries
- Date: Oct 2005
- Competency: External Forces & Industry Knowledge
- Topics: Economics; Modeling & Statistical Methods>Forecasting
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Appendix E - Round 2: Comments on Application of Judegmental Methods - Delphi Report
Appendix E - Round 2: ... Respondent 7 • All Respondent 9 • Lower S&P by 100 bps. Respondent 13 • Studying ... interest rates. • Less influence – outliers on S&P 500. Respondent 9 • We need to utilize ...- Authors: Society of Actuaries
- Date: Oct 2005
- Competency: External Forces & Industry Knowledge
- Topics: Economics; Modeling & Statistical Methods>Forecasting