Description: A paper entitled “A Regime-Switching Model of Long-Term Stock Returns” appears in the April 2001 issue of the North American Actuarial Journal. In it, Dr. Mary Hardy describes a model for future equity returns and some reasons why that model might better reflect real equity price movements than the often-used lognormal model. The purpose of this article is to apply a two-regime model to variable annnuity GMDB pricing and compare the results to those from a lognormal model.

Description: Summary of NAIC's Winter National Meeting

Description: Article Disparate Origins Of Life And Non-Life Insurances by Beard in The Actuary, February 1979, Volume 13, Number 2

Description: This work investigates the use of a statistical approach to calculate the incurred but not reported IBNR reserve directly. This allows for the reserve to be estimated in one step, without completion factors, and it provides a confidence interval around the estimate of IBNR as well.

Description: In physics and engineering education, Fermi problems require solutions based on good approximate calculations with little or no actual data, involving making justified guesses and deducing bounds without using sophisticated tools. The idea of Fermi problems are of particular relevance to today's actuaries, as pricing, reserving, and financial reporting involve more and more complex stochastic components. The paper discusses some approximate solutions developed in academia in the spirit of Fermi problems.

Description: A discussion of the possible effort required and impacts resulting from the implementation of C3 Phase II for establishing risk-based capital for variable annuities. This article will describe practical considerations gleaned from actual valuation calculations recently performed by a consulting firm.

Description: The article explores impact of resetting cap vs static cap choice for the GLWB rider for a Fixed Index Annuity for a Point to Point. Moreover, analysis of a Monthly Sum Cap is provided showing impacts of particular choices of market models (e.g. Black, Heston, Bates) used to price this deal.

Description: This article deals with enterprise risk management and how the techniques contained within the discipline can help prevent unforeseen large mistakes in strategy, product design, and product management

Description: Provides a metric based on the concept of "entropy" from information theory/signal processing, for modifying a stochastic scenario set to meet pre-defined targets on average across the set. Explains the concept and develops it in simple examples. Illustrates why an optimal adjustment to the scenario set is one that maximizes entropy. Provides guidelines to limit use of the technique appropriately and avoid invalid application of the tool.