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Adapting Credibility Blended Rates to Encompass Machine Learning Predictions
significantly impact our estimates. Table 1 illustrates the volatility: Table 1 Estimates Volatility There are ... Each player makes a contribution towards the game’s objective. The Shapley statistic attempts to divvy ...- Date: Apr 2021
- Competency: Technical Skills & Analytical Problem Solving
- Publication Name: Predictive Analytics and Futurism Newsletter
- Topics: Predictive Analytics>Modeling techniques
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Exploiting While Exploring: An Introduction to Bayesian Optimization
Definitions and Side Notes If this is new to you, let’s define what a hyperparameter is versus a more familiar ... space, we use a surrogate model to model our model’s hyperparameters. Specifically, we choose a Gaussian ...- Authors: Nicholas Hanewinckel
- Date: Jun 2021
- Competency: Results-Oriented Solutions; Technical Skills & Analytical Problem Solving
- Publication Name: Predictive Analytics and Futurism Newsletter
- Topics: Life Insurance; Predictive Analytics>Modeling techniques; Predictive Analytics>Programming languages & tools
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GET BETTER ACQUAINTED WITH YOUR KNOWN UNKNOWNS
GET BETTER ACQUAINTED WITH YOUR KNOWN UNKNOWNS Uncertainty of a predictive model is a fact ... predictions to the number of heads expected. A mortality analysis case study illustrates how the Bayesian ...- Authors: Dan Kim, Boyang Meng
- Date: Apr 2020
- Competency: Results-Oriented Solutions
- Publication Name: Predictive Analytics and Futurism Newsletter
- Topics: Experience Studies & Data>Mortality; Predictive Analytics>Modeling techniques; Predictive Analytics>Quality control & model governance
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Modeling Extreme Events
flu season, usual number of accidents and doctor’s visits), large but predictable claims (serious illness ... significant fraction of risk in a health insurer’s portfolio. Although this latest coronavirus epidemic ...- Authors: Robert Jason Reed (Jason)
- Date: Jun 2021
- Competency: Technical Skills & Analytical Problem Solving
- Publication Name: Predictive Analytics and Futurism Newsletter
- Topics: Predictive Analytics>Modeling techniques
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Surrogate Models: A Comfortable Middle Ground?
Surrogate Models: A Comfortable Middle Ground? In this article we examine the benefits ... large errors are less favorable than small errors. Table 1 Difference Between MAE and RMSE Metrics GLM Versus ...- Authors: Harrison Jones
- Date: Aug 2021
- Competency: Technical Skills & Analytical Problem Solving
- Publication Name: Predictive Analytics and Futurism Newsletter
- Topics: Modeling & Statistical Methods>Regression analysis; Predictive Analytics>Modeling techniques