Description: The author recounts his experience as a keynote speaker at the Actuarial Research Conference and provides advice to young actuaries to present complex subjects in an understandable manner.

Description: Overview on current trends in medical practice impacting the LTC insurance business with a focus on dementia, risk stratification, and predictive modeling.

Description: October 2015 issue of CompAct, the technology section's member benefit newsletter.

Description: This article delves into a new line of statistical thinking of the author, that may be useful for product development actuaries. The key concept is how product design can produce products that diversify quickly, meaning that the company can be confident of a profitable product line, based on fewer sales than might be true for other designs.

Description: The article focuses on the use of predictive analytics in the development of experience studies, pros and cons of using predictive analytics versus traditional techniques, and the implications for setting assumptions and improving profitability.

Description: Although rate structures where low-cost cohorts subsidize high cost cohorts may be justified from a actuarial, marketing, or legal standpoint, the subsidization creates risks which must be understood and monitored. This article presents the concept of subsidization signature to measure and interpret the effects of rate subsidization, and to assess the sustainability of rating structures and the sensitivity of business mix assumptions.

Description: The guest editorial details some valuable lessons during the author’s career as an employee benefits (mostly retirement) consultant, turned P&C predictive modeling, reporting and data warehousing lead, turned an analytic strategist and independent consultant.

Description: Identifying and submitting all appropriate ICD-9 diagnosis codes to CMS will result in a higher risk score for the member and increased payments to Medicare Advantage plans. Milliman's HCC prevalence study illustrates the significant variations in HCC prevalence rates by age/gender, geography, and population type and will assist plans in benchmarking the effectiveness of their own diagnosis code capture efforts.

Description: A new health insurance pricing model takes external market prices into account, as well as regulatory rate restrictions and other traditional pricing factors. Rather than being assumed at the outset, lapse rates emerge from the model, along with assessment spiral & loss ratio projections. Under the model optimal pricing strategy depends on whether the class being rated has a healthier than average mix of risks.

Description: The article provides several examples of projects led by actuaries who are applying advanced data analytics and big data to solve industry-specific business problems.