Description: What is going on with the exchange rate, anyway? In 2002, $1 U.S. bought $C 1.60, and now in May 2005 you only get $C 1.25—that’s 20 percent less! Where’s it going next? One way to answer that question is with a time series model.

Description: This paper is from the Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1956 Volume 8, Number 20. It was presented at the 1956 Spring Meetings of the Society of Actuaries for discussion. The author presents an outline of how difficulties in the determination of a frequency distribution of the expected costs may be overcome by, in part, applying the concept of using a series of random numbers with a view of making mortality studies for each life in a group of annuitants. The paper also presents the results of some experiments which were designed to discover whether or not the concept could be conducted on an IBM 650 electronic data processing machine.

Description: Report on the topics and speakers at the Actuarial Research Conference and Social Security Benefits, held August 31 through September 2, 1978.

Description: In this paper, chapter III of the 1987 Valuation Actuary Handbook, the authors discuss building a liability model to evaluate the C-3 risk. The article discusses the data and assumptions needed, and the importance of sensitivity testing given that the model results are very sensitive to the assumptions used.

Description: This paper is from Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1955 Volume 7, Number 17. The author notes that recent advances in calculating equipment make possible producing graduations much more elaborate than any done previously. The paper confines itself to the problem of graduating a single column of rates, such as an ultimate column, using a Whittaker-Henderson B graduation of the fourth order. The author provides a detailed description of the process with significant mathematical theory.

Description: In this article about interest rate models, the author develops an empirical description of the term “interest rate regime,” and looks at the relationship between changes in yield curves and moving to a new interest rate regime.

Description: “It’s interesting to note that, given the past year’s reversal of fortunes in the stock markets, all the media rap about heated inquiries around back-dating options has stopped.”

Description: This article focuses on one fundamental modeling assumption — the choice of a benchmark rate or risk-free rate. The author looks at this bond market assumption as a case study of how one needs to monitor fundamental market changes for their impact on assumptions.

Description: “Many commentators have suggested that firms need to do stress tests to examine their vulnerability to adverse situations that are not within the data set used to parameterize their risk models. We suggest the adop¬tion of a terminology to describe stress tests and also a meth¬odology that can be adopted by any risk model user to test and communicate a test of the stability of model results.”

Description: There are two main techniques for evaluating the financial impact of interest rate movements on insurance companies: duration measures and computer simulations. In many ways these approaches provide complementary viewpoints.