Description: This paper analyzes the U. S. Treasury monthly interest rates from 1953 to 1992, and the daily rates from 1981 to 1992 for various forms of chaotic behavior. The primary analysis was in determining the Burst Exponent by the use of Rescaled Range Analysis. This paper also discusses other possible uses of Fractional Brownian Motion in Finance Theory, Macroeconomics, and Actuarial Science. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1994 VOL. 1.

Description: Annual reports of the U.S. Social Security Trustees present 75-year financial projections of the system under three different deterministic sets of economic and demographic assumptions or scenarios. The extent of the divergence between these scenarios provides useful information concerning the range of possible outcomes, but, in the absence of stochastic model projections, no probability measure can be assigned to the three scenarios, apart from being described as intermediate, low-cost and high-cost. Demographic research and stochastic model forecasts of U.S. population suggest plausible hypotheses for analysis of the divergence characteristics of the actuarial solvency ratios implied by the three deterministic scenarios. Available data from the 2002 Trustees’ report are presented and various statistical measures are developed to aid in the assessment of plausible associated probability measures for the scenario projections.

Description: This dissertation is about methods for assessing mortality risk in regard to insurance and annuity transactions. Although the basic methods and formulas are general, most of the applications made here deal with life annuity transactions, with particular emphasis on pension situations.

Description: Table of Contents

Description: Table of Contents

Description: A short note on derivatives of decreasing life annuities that was motivated by Exercise 5.35 on page 156 of 'Actuarial Mathematics'. Actuarial Research Clearing House 1993 VOL. 2

Description: Concomitant with the industrial revolution, the function of providing old age income shifted from families and local institutions to government social security and private pension plans. The history of this change in the U.K. and U.S. is reviewed. A simple mathematical model provides insights into the role played by three rates [the rate of increase of the working population, the time preference rate, and the rate of real wage growth] in determining optimum funding policy. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1994, Vol. 2.

Description: The purpose of this paper is to explain several actuarial-demographic-statistical techniques and show their application in medical investigations. Actuarial Research Clearing House 1979, VOL. 1

Description: Shows how to use personal information such as medical history, family characteristics, etc. in a logical statistical fashion for the purpose of modifying an existing mortality table to reflect the collected underwriting information.

Description: These are abstracts of the following papers: 1. 'DISCONTINUITY AT THE BOUNDARY' by Beda Chan. 2. 'ON THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN BALDUCCI AND UDD.' by Murray Silver. 3. 'PROBLEMS IN AND A SYLLABUS FOR DEMOGRAPHY' by John A. Beckman. 4. 'A MATHEMATICAL APPROACH TO YIELDS UNDER VARYING INVESTMENT CONDITIONS' by A. Spedding. 5. 'COUNTERPART EXPOSURE FORMULAS UNDER THE BALDUCCI AND UNIFORM DEATHS ASSUMPTIONS' by H. J. Boom. 6. 'DUALITY BETWEEN UNIFORM DEATHS AND BALDUCCI ASSUMPTIONS' by Elias S. W. Shiu. 7. 'RECENTLY PUBLISHED U.K. MORTALITY TABLES, METHODS OF CONSTRUCTION, AND POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENTS THEREFROM' by J. J. McCutcheon. From ACTUARIAL RESEARCH CLEARING HOUSE, 1980 VOL. 2.