Description: Projecting Budget Surpluses by Carl E. Walsh from Risks and Rewards Newsletter, April 2000, Issue No. 34. Discussion of the difficulties involved in making projections U.S. budget surpluses or deficits and how assumptions change.

Description: GDP growth has slowed as numerous headwinds have emerged. This article summarizes a research paper by Mark Alberts and Max Rudolph that addresses reasons why this is so and how risk managers can address using scenarios.

Description: While the major market crash subsequent to the widespread contagion of the COVID-19 virus was readily predictable, the rapid recovery and ongoing growth subsequent to it was not. Market dynamics around the recovery resist characterization by most traditional analytical approaches. In examining the circumstances around the emergence of a large retail class of investors, one sees that ingrained human tendencies, particularly optimism bias, have fueled much investor behavior responsible for the recovery. Understanding this makes it possible to predict potential future crashes and develop behavioral interventions for subsequent market recoveries.

Description: In insurance companies and pension plans currency risk arises when a company has future obligations in one currency and investments in another currency. The question that is often asked is whether this currency risk should hedged or not.