Description: This article aims to measure the accuracy of official projections.

Description: An excerpt from a presentation at the 2014 Living to 100 Symposium, this article describes an open-source model for use by actuaries attempting to estimate future health benefit costs, discusses its strengths and limitations, and projects that spending for those age over 65 will take more than $13 trillion by 2055, about 50 percent of total medical expenditures.

Description: COVID has washed over healthcare like a tsunami. According to Medicare actuaries, trends have been turned upside down in 2021, but will reverse back in 2023 as medical costs rebound. It is more prudent to base projections on long run trends for a period after the storm, extrapolating from 2026 forward, leaving the intervening turbulence (years 2022 -2025) mostly unspecified.

Description: An outlook on the health industry incorporating insights from the Getzen Model of Long-Run Medical Cost Trends

Description: The purpose of the SOA project Modeling Long Term Healthcare Cost Trends for Valuation is to provide a benchmark projection of medical cost increases and provide a user-firendly model for making alternative projections. This paper presents sample output from the model, technical documentation of the model, FAQs, and a review of the literature and references.

Description: A divisive confrontation over health care pricing is almost inevitable over the next few years. What will ultimately happen is a political decision, not an actuarial one—but it will have major consequences for the trend in health care costs and the divergence between public and private insurance premiums.

Description: A divisive confrontation over health care pricing is almost inevitable over the next few years. What will ultimately happen is a political decision, not an actuarial one—but it will have major consequences for the trend in health care costs and the divergence between public and private insurance premiums.

Description: This review uses historical and contemporary sources to trace the growth of national health expenditures in the US from 1776 to 2026.

Description: The focus of the webcast on Modeling Long–Term Medical Trends for Valuation Purposes was a discussion of the underlying methodology of the model, a walk through of the actual model, and a review of the considerations for its practical usage by actuaries. The running time of this video is 1 hour and 3 minutes. It is a presentation of slides without audio.

Description: The “Getzen Model” is a set of linked formulas to facilitate projections of average medical care cost increases over the long run.