Description: The purpose of this article is to provide a high level summary of the paper “Variance of the CTE Estimator” by B. John Manistre and Geoffrey H. Hancock that appeared in the North American Actuarial Journal in 2005. The authors also expanded on some of the results.

Description: This paper discusses a natural and convenient statistic, the nested L-statistic, investigates its performance using a simulation study, and considers an example involving the comparison of risk measure values where the risks of interest are those associated with tornado damage in different time periods and different regions. From the Actuarial Research Clearing House, 2008, Vol.1.

Description: This article presents recent perspectives on the understanding and measurement of pandemic risk.

Description: Excess ratio refers to the calculation of expected losses in excess of some stated limit. This paper suggests methods for calculating excess ratios in the practical situation without the laborious calculations which the techniques of Dr. Kahn's paper, 'An Introduction to Collective Risk Theory and Its Application to Stop Loss Reinsurance,' would seem to require, and as an alternative to the Monte Carlo simulation technique which would also seem to be impractical to use on a case by case basis in experience rating.

Description: This paper illustrates a current approach to capital allocation, referred to herein as Tail Contribution Analysis TCA, using it to evaluate the impact of changes in an insurer’s operations by allocating capital to individual lines of business. It then highlights a common problem in the implementation of the procedure arising from reserve volatility and briefly notes the failure of the methodology to account for a firm’s changing levels of risk under various strategies. Finally, it introduces an alternative method for analyzing business segments and strategies called Economic Profit Analysis EPA. We will discuss EPA’s key feature, “volatility replication,” an intuitively appealing process of building investor expectations and capital market information into the risk-and-return measurements used to evaluate strategic decisions. Finally, we will illustrate the benefit of using EPA in overcoming the problems of TCA and thereby providing concise reliable information for business decision making.

Description: Summary of the SOA research project on PBR Simplified Methods. Describes the multi-risk scenario generator, central estimate assumptions, assumption objectivity measures, and regulatory demonstrations per VM-20.

Description: This report reviews the academic literature on risk aggregation and diversification as well as the regulatory approaches. We will point out the advantages and disadvantages of the different approaches with a focus on model risk issues.

Description: This study note focuses on actuarial applications and loss distributions for insurance products.

Description: In this paper the author introduces a generalization of Bondy development and demonstrates its descriptive powers. Generalized Bondy development facilitates estimation of development factors, is easily computed, and affords excellent fits to observed development ratios. From the Actuarial Research Clearing House ARCH 1989 Vol. 2.

Description: Commentary on practical observations resulting from constructing and running Economic Capital models. Possible standardization of assumptions and result interpretation are morphing even though use of E.C. models has now been around for years.