Description: A look at the near future and far future of various elements of Actuarial Models as defined through ASOP 51. What is driving the complexity for inputs, calculations, and outputs. Howe will actuaries handle these challenge?

Description: As actuaries in health care, we spend most of our time focused on reviewing claims, enrollment and clinical data. That information is captured while patients are in health care facilities. Yet most people spend only a small fraction of their time in these facilities. This article explores what types of data are available to actuaries the provide a more holistic view of the member so that a members physical and emotional needs, the social determinants of health can be taken into consideration along with their clinical needs. Two uses cases are presented so actuaries can see how these types of analyses can be leveraged to improve clinical, operational, and financial performance of risk bearing health entities. Understanding the customer (member) not just the patient enables actuaries to provide new insights and values to our stakeholders across a wide range of business and risk applications.

Description: Review of non public options to finance care including personal savings, revers mortgages, family care and private insurance.

Description: This article provides an overview of activities that should be considered by an actuary when validating a predictive model. It describes several components to consider when validating a predictive model and provides an examination of various methodologies that can be implemented in the validation process.

Description: While the major market crash subsequent to the widespread contagion of the COVID-19 virus was readily predictable, the rapid recovery and ongoing growth subsequent to it was not. Market dynamics around the recovery resist characterization by most traditional analytical approaches. In examining the circumstances around the emergence of a large retail class of investors, one sees that ingrained human tendencies, particularly optimism bias, have fueled much investor behavior responsible for the recovery. Understanding this makes it possible to predict potential future crashes and develop behavioral interventions for subsequent market recoveries.

Description: The paper demonstrates that the most popular rationalization for evolving glide paths is flawed and should be discarded. The paper also demonstrates that glide paths should generally evolve for investors that endeavor to optimize outcomes and reevaluate their portfolios regularly.

Description: As actuaries, we’re trained to see patterns in numbers and to design solutions that mitigate risk. But I can tell you from experience that while quantitative analysis and modeling are critical actuarial tools, looking at the numbers alone can lead to insurance products that don’t succeed in the real world the way the math says they “should.” With new digital technologies, we have more data at our fingertips than ever before, but I believe it’s equally as important to bring qualitative research methodologies into your product development process if you want to design solutions that meet real needs in the market. In this article, Amanda Turcotte shares what happens when qualitative research is neglected or ignored, what happens when you incorporate it into the product design process, and how to implement qualitative research practices in your organization.

Description: This paper uses the ideal quasi-natural experiment of government-subsidized agricultural insurance program phased out in different regions of China since 2007 to study the effects and transmission mechanisms of the program on alleviating regional poverty using a multi-period Difference-in-Differences (DID) approach. Specifically, this paper identifies the causal effects on the incidence, depth and intensity of poverty among rural residents. The research has important policy implications. First, this paper uses the program as a case to provide a research paradigm to estimate effects of implementing policy instruments that combine markets and government mandates. Second, as common prosperity is now a government imperative, the research also provides insights into ways insurance can be used to hedge income risks, alleviate poverty and help achieve more equitable distribution. The paper has been published on WeChat account of Chinese Association of Actuaries on February 9, 2022. The full version has been published in CSSCI journal Insurance Research, issue 11, 2021.

Description: Review of paper describing Collective Defined Contribution Plans. the elimination of traditional pensions by many companies have left employees without easy access to reliable retirement income Collective Defined Contribution plans which are used to a small extent in the US but more broadly used elsewhere offer an option for consideration.

Description: This article highlights the fact that new requirements for disclosure of average liability duration and interest rates could lead to diversity in practice. It also recognizes that elements of the new disclosure requirements will enable financial statement users to perform their own crude estimates of these averages in ways that could help them to better understand the liabilities and to compare companies using consistent methods. Finally, the article describes how companies might also find value in such crude estimates.