Description: This presentation compares continuous-time multi-factor affine cohort mortality models and presents estimation results for an affine multi-factor, multi-cohort mortality model.

Description: This is A Value-Based Longevity Index for Hedging Retirement Income Portfolios abstract authored by Jonathan Ziveyi, Kevin Krahe, Michael Sherris, Andres M Villegas for Session 1A of the January 13-15, 2020 Living to 100 Symposium in Orlando, Florida.

Description: Abstract: Over the last century, the assumption usually made was that causes of death are independent, although it is well-known that dependencies exist. Recent developments in econometrics allow, through Vector Error Correction Models (VECM), to model multivariate dynamic systems including time dependency between economic variables. Common trends that exist between the variables may then be highlighted, the relation between these variables being represented by a long-run equilibrium relationship. In this work, VECM are developed for causes-of-death mortality. We analyze the five main causes of death across ten major countries representing a diversity of developed economies. The World Health Organization website provides cause-of-death information over about the last 60 years. Our analysis reveals that long-run equilibrium relationships exist between the five main causes of death, improving our understanding of the nature of dependence between these com peting risks over recent years. It also highlights that countries had usually different past experience in regards to cause-of-death mortality trends and thus, applying results from one country to another may be misleading.

Description: Over the last century, the assumption usually made was that causes of death are independent, although it is well-known that dependencies exist. Recent developments in econometrics allow, through Vector Error Correction Models (VECM), to model multivariate dynamic systems including time dependency between economic variables. Common trends that exist between the variables may then be highlighted, the relation between these variables being represented by a long-run equilibrium relationship. In this work, VECM are developed for causes-of-death mortality. We analyze the five main causes of death across ten major countries representing a diversity of developed economies. The World Health Organization website provides cause-of-death information over about the last 60 years. Our analysis reveals that long-run equilibrium relationships exist between the five main causes of death, improving our understanding of the nature of dependence between these com peting risks over recent years. It also highlights that countries had usually different past experience in regards to cause-of-death mortality trends and thus, applying results from one country to another may be misleading.

Description: The main aim of this paper is to apply some of the techniques of modern time series and econometric analysis to analyse investment data in order to better understand the nature of long run relationships in investment series typically used in stochastic investment models. The paper attempts to identify and address fundamental issues that need to be considered before developing a particular stochastic investment model.

Description: This paper sets out, in algorithm form, a one-factor term structure model of interest rates and illustrates the application of such a model to the valuation of loans with prepayment provisions. From the Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1994, Vol. 46.

Description: Pension funds are usually either defined benefit or defined contribution funds. In Australia in recent years, for a number of reasons, some pension funds have offered the 'greater of,' these two benefits. Such a benefit design can be valued using contingent claims valuation techniques since it is equivalent to an option on the maximum of two random benefit amounts - one equal to a multiple of salary and the other the accumulation of a percentage of salary at an earnings rate. This paper overviews some of the issues in applying contingent claims valuation techniques to the valuation of this style of benefit. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1993, Vol. 1.