Description: This paper generalizes the life table to include the effects of observed and unobserved tine-varying health-related covariates using a longitudinal form of the Grade of Membership model to specify and estimate a multivariate model of the trajectories of disability and mortality among elderly respondents to the NLTCS of 1984, 1989, 1994, and 1999. From 2005 Living to 100 and Beyond Monograph, M-LI05-1.

Description: This presentation is a panel discussion, session 107PD, from the 2004 Spring Meeting of the Society of Actuaries, held May 19-21 in Anaheim, CA. Research results from the National Long-Term Care Survey and other surveys of the general elderly population indicate that age-specific morbidity [functional disability] prevalence rates have dropped significantly since 1982. The panelists quantify the nature of the temporal trends in disease morbidity and functional disability, noting that what is really new in this session is looking at the joint impact of changes in disability and mortality. They illustrate the potential impact of these temporal trends on long-term care insurance LTCI pricing and valuation, and provide some guidance as to how this material can be used by LTCI actuaries. Discussion from participants is included. From the Record of Society of Actuaries, Volume 30, No. 1.

Description: This discussion on long-term care [LTC] highlights secondary drivers in LTC experience in both insured and general populations. Practical applications of this new information for pricing, reserving and marketing is discussed. From the Record of the Society of Actuaries, Volume 28, No. 2, Session 42pd.

Description: This paper employs a static-component projection methodology as a first step in a more complex research agenda focusing on developing detailed population projections in which mortality, disability, and disease are represented as linked phenomena with changes in any one impacting the other two. From Retirement Needs Framework, M-RS00-1.