Description: Regime switching models have become a popular tool in econometric time series modeling since their introduction in Hamilton [1989].These models have been widely applied for equity-returns for investment guarantees. A prominent risk management challenge is hedging these guarantees, given the equity regime switching process. This presentation develops some methodologies for regime-switching portfolio replication and use real world data to demonstrate and evaluate their effects. A Bayesian approach for regime switching model fitting is used, which allows for the examination of the robustness of each of the optimization methods when parameter uncertainty is present.

Description: From a session at the 2001 Valuation Actuary Symposium, held in Lake Buena Vista, Florida, November 29-30, 2001 Teaching session covering the development of realistic liability models for use in asset adequacy analysis, asset/liability management, pricing/repricing, financial reporting or other corporate purposes. The primary focus is modeling issues for variable product features, such as minimum living or death benefit guarantees on both variable life and annuities, annuity death benefit enhancements, and variable immediate annuities. Topics include: • Analysis of the special risks posed by these products • Selecting realistic dynamic assumptions • Techniques used in modeling these products • Scenario testing and result presentation to best communicate risks

Description: From a teaching session at the 2000 Valuation Actuary Symposium held in Washington DC, September 14-15, 2000 Discussion of realistic liability models for use in asset adequacy analysis, asset/liability management, pricing/repricing, financial reporting, or other purposes.

Description: 1995 Valuation Actuary Symposium. In this session panelists discussed how cash-flow testing models can be used to provide significant Asset/Liability Management information, making the transition from cash-flow testing to ALM, definitions of ALM, the key assumptions in ALM, and evaluating results.

Description: In this paper, chapter III of the 1987 Valuation Actuary Handbook, the authors discuss building a liability model to evaluate the C-3 risk. The article discusses the data and assumptions needed, and the importance of sensitivity testing given that the model results are very sensitive to the assumptions used.

Description: From the 1986 Valuation Actuary Symposium, held in Washington DC in October 1986 Examination of the nuts and bolts of cash flow testing analysis.

Description: From the 1985 Valuation Actuary Symposium Discussion of the practical application of cash flow testing in the valuation process.