Description: This report discusses management decision making practices and the need for actuaries to build the appropriate level of variability for management actions in stochastic models to achieve a more realistic range of future experience among the stochastic scenarios.

Description: The monograph walks the reader through the hindsight, insight and foresight building process while discussing theoretical and practical issues supporting the building of valid forecasts with provenance for each of these schema examples. That is, the analyst can document the iterative ‘profiling change processes’ mindscape and landscape elements by which and through which the successful forecast is built. This kind of forecast construction ameliorates the ‘black box’ problem of generating pattern output without an understanding of the pattern’s creation or contextual meaning that is often seen when using other methods, particularly machine learning and artificial intelligence. This issue is discussed, referencing appropriate thought leaders.

Description: The Society of Actuaries Smaller Insurance Company Section, the Financial Reporting Section, and the Committee on Life Insurance Research are pleased to make available new research investigating simplified methods for determining reserves under VM-20.

Description: This is the Demographic Perspectives on the Rise of Longevity paper authored by Marie-Pier Bergeron Boucher, James W. Vaupel and Francisco Villavicencio for Session 4A of the January 13-15, 2020 Living to 100 Symposium in Orlando, Florida.

Description: The Casualty Actuarial Society, Canadian Institute of Actuaries, and the Society of Actuaries' Joint Risk Management Section and the Joint Risk Management Research Committee are pleased to make available a new report on the application of ERM. Authored by Bonnie-Jeanne MacDonald, Sim Segal, Michael Wolfson and Heidi Walsh, the report provides a novel demonstration on how ERM can be applied to serve the Canadian public by informing decision makers on the risks facing the current and future delivery of long-term care.

Description: This paper introduces actuaries and others to dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models, a type of macroeconomic model. Authored by Kailan Shang, the paper illustrates how DSGE models can be used in economic scenario generation to reflect the cause and effect relationships that occur in the economic system.

Description: This report looks at identifying drivers of systemic risk to China’s insurance industry and develops a measurement method for systemic risk as well as systemic risk dependence between the insurance industry and other industries.

Description: This report looks at identifying drivers of systemic risk to China’s insurance industry and develops a measurement method for systemic risk as well as systemic risk dependence between the insurance industry and other industries.

Description: The Smaller Insurance Company Section, the Committee on Life Insurance Research and the Product Development Section announce the release of a new report on the impact mortality credibility has on principle-based reserves.

Description: This literature review provides insights on emerging technologies that interact with the actuarial profession within the space of microinsurance for the purpose of establishing a frame of reference for actuaries to use in their work. Furthermore, it intends to spark readers’ interest in, and create a vision for, how microinsurance and its associated technologies may impact the actuarial industry in the future.

Description: The Canadian Institute of Actuaries and Society of Actuaries Committee on Life Insurance Research, the Product Development Section and the Financial Reporting Section, sponsored this study investigating how the Canadian life insurance industry is utilizing predictive modelling.

Description: The CIA, SOA and Joint Risk Management Section of the CAS, CIA, and the SOA sponsored a whitepaper on the application of ERM at a federal government level.

Description: This paper summarizes the results of a survey of waiver of premium/monthly deduction rider assumptions and experience.

Description: This research report is the result of a second phase examination of the impact of VM-20 on life insurance product development.

Description: Paper by Max Rudolph for the SOA on historical views on systemic risk and its applications.

Description: This research report is a summary of an online survey and follow-up discussions with survey respondents on the current state of actuarial modeling controls within U. S. and Canadian life insurance and annuity companies. The current state was then compared to the results from the 2012 survey on this topic to examine the evolution in actuarial model controls and governance. The report also provides an industry assessment and proposes considerations for enhancing the current state towards a well-controlled governance framework.

Description: This paper investigates techniques for the assessment of model error in the context of insurance risk analysis.

Description: This SOA report provides an overview and analysis of the mortality models, theories and trends contained in the papers presented at the past four international Living to 100 symposia.

Description: A primer on extreme event modeling and mitigation for practitioners, it covers the complete cycle of extreme event risk management, from identifying experience data sources, to extreme event detection, to modeling and dependence analysis, and finally to monitoring and mitigation.

Description: This is the English version of the research report, “Funding Public Health Insurance Plans Canada and Globally”. This report briefly looks at the actual health care funding models and metrics in seven countries (Canada, Sweden, France, Germany, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the United States) along with health care metrics for another 13 countries (20 OECD countries in total). This report also suggests a number of possible areas where actuaries could provide expertise to assist in the management of public health care plans.

Description: This paper provides a summary of the Dec. 2012 summit of the Natural Resource Sustainability Group and invited experts.

Description: This PBA Implementation Guide provides verbal summaries and visual flow chart overviews of various VM-20 and PBA components and requirements, six Case Study Road Maps, and action items to bridge the gaps and implement PBA. During the Guide’s development these templates and exercises were vetted with more than 15 participants selected from a diverse group of companies

Description: This PBA Implementation Guide provides verbal summaries and visual flow chart overviews of various VM-20 and PBA components and requirements, six Case Study Road Maps, and action items to bridge the gaps and implement PBA. During the Guide’s development these templates and exercises were vetted with more than 15 participants selected from a diverse group of companies.

Description: This project shows how to use agent-based models to simulate the behaviors of agents in complex health systems.

Description: This SOA report identifies methodologies currently in use by life insurers as well as potential new strategies to manage balance sheet and income volatility risk associated with fair value and related accounting

Description: This SOA report provides an overview and analysis of the mortality models, theories and trends contained in the papers presented at the past four international Living to 100 symposia.

Description: To expand our understanding of the theory of behavioral economics and its application to life and health insurance policyholder and annuitant behavior, the Society of Actuaries' Committee on Knowledge Extension Research, Committee on Life Insurance Research and the Financial Reporting Section issued a call for papers, inviting actuaries, academics, economists, psychologists, sociologists, researchers and other professionals to explore this topic from a variety of perspectives.

Description: This dissertation by Tia Sawhney will help you understand this issue and start measuring it, or start promoting equitable public policy.

Description: This report explains the concept and construction of the Market Consistent Embedded Value (MCEV) measure, as well as its usefulness as a profit/risk measure relative to other profit/risk measures currently used by insurance companies for various products. The knowledge from this research will assist actuaries, corporate leadaers, risk management professionals and others in understanding, implementing and comparing MCEV to current risk assessment tools utilized by insurance companies.

Description: This is the User's Guide that accompanies the Inflation Generator Excel spreadsheet which is associated with the research report entitled 'The Effect of Deflation or High Inflation on the Insurance Industry.'

Description: This presentation discusses a process for determining the minimum reinsurance retention level consistent with defined parameters. The conclusions reached were: 1. Under PDS dependence, optimal reinsurance strategy is multivariate stop loss form. 2. Explicit solutions could be derived in certain bivariate model. 3. Binding and unbinding constraints are equivalent. From Actuarial Research Clearing House, 2012, Vol. 1.

Description: This presentation provided an analysis of investment guarantees in equity-linked products. There was an overview of the data and models in use. In addition an actuarial approach to left-tail analysis was presented as well as a dynamic hedging approach. From Actuarial Research Clearing House, 2012, Vol. 1.

Description: The Pension Section is pleased to make available Part I of a two-part research paper exploring embedded options in pension plans. Part I includes a catalogue of embedded options in pension plans and the results of a related survey of pension practitioners. The paper was written by PricewaterhouseCoopers LLC.

Description: The Policyholder Behavior in the Tail Risk Management Section Working Group issued its fifth survey to gather the range of assumptions actuaries use in pricing, reserving, and risk management of minimum guarantees on Variable Annuity products, such as death benefits, income benefits, withdrawal benefits and maturity benefits.

Description: This report describes the results of a survey on reflecting risk in pricing. The survey expands on one conducted in 2003 and was expanded to include life, health, P&C, and non-North American insurance companies.

Description: A research report that first defines ERM and provides the results of an applicable literature search with hyperlinks and then describes the current state of Enterprise Risk Management practices for health organizations. Areas covered: 1. Operational Risks. 2. Balance sheet risks. 3. Pricing discipline. 4. Asset risks. 5. Learnings. 6. Emerging risks.

Description: This report presents the results of a survey conducted in August of 2008 on foreign travel underwriting practices of reinsurance companies.

Description: The attached report presents the results of a survey conducted by the Society of Actuaries Mortality and Underwriting Survey Committee in July of 2008 under the following categories: 1. Modeling Mortality Risk. 2. Use of Reinsurance to Manage Mortality. 3. Retention / Large Case Management. 4. Catastrophe Reinsurance. 5. Mortality Concentration of Risk. 6. Catastrophic Bonds.

Description: This is a report on the PBITT Working Group's fourth survey to gather the assumptions actuaries use in pricing, reserving, and risk management of minimum guarantees on Variable Annuity products, such as death benefits, income benefits, withdrawal benefits and maturity benefits.

Description: Automobile insurers classify the risks that they underwrite in order to subdivide the portfolio into classes of risks with similar profiles. While some insurers may have sufficient historical data, several others may not have significant volume of experience data in order to produce reliable claims predictions to help enhance their risk classification systems. A database containing a pooled experience of several insurers thereby helps to produce a more fair, reliable, and equitable premium structure for all risks concerned. This paper uses multilevel models to analyze the data on claim counts provided by the General Insurance Association of Singapore, an organization consisting of most of the general insurers in Singapore. The multilevel nature of the data is due to the following: a certain vehicle is observed over a period of years and is insured by a particular insurance company under a certain 'fleet' policy. The authors show how intercompany data lead to a priori premiums and a posteriori corrections to these initial premiums. Specific focus is made in understanding the intercompany effects using various count distribution models [Poisson, negative binomial, zero–inflated and hurdle Poisson]. The performance of these various models is compared the authors also investigate how to use the historical claims of a company, fleet and/or vehicle in order to correct for the premium initially set.

Description: From June 11 through August 3, 2007, the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign [UIUC] hosted a National Science Foundation-sponsored Research Experience for Undergraduates on the topic 'Stochastic Modeling in Actuarial Science and Financial Mathematics.' This Experience, provided to 6 undergraduate mathematics students from universities across the United States, was directed by Professor Rick Gorvett, the Director of the UIUC Actuarial Science Program. This report summarizes the program and describes the research projects undertaken.

Description: Milliman, Inc. Milliman was retained by the Society of Actuaries SOA to perform certain actuarial analyses with respect to the Z-Factor methodology under a principles-based approach PBA to statutory reserve and capital. Under PBA, the Z-Factor is a measure of margin in excess of the best estimate assumptions embedded in the statutory reserves of a life insurance product or block of business.

Description: A research project with the Society of Actuaries on interest rate hedging on traditional life and health insurance.

Description: For insurance companies, modeling the future values of assets and their interactions is useful for setting up asset strategies and managing reserves for liabilities. This paper evaluates the ability of Wilkie’s stochastic investment models to predict Toronto Stock Exchange [TSX] price index yield. In the Wilkie Model, correlated econometric indices are modeled through a cascade structure.

Description: U.K. life insurers writing participating business are required by the Financial Services Authority to value their assets and liabilities on a market-consistent basis. The purpose of this paper is to: • Explain the valuation approach based on market-consistent values and its rationale. • Set out the issues faced by life insurers in implementing the regime. • Explain how insurers addressed these issues. • Explain the importance of the modeling techniques they used.

Description: This research report study uses the property/liability insurance industry as a research sample to examine how risk management, financial management, and capital management are related to each another. This allows reflecting such relationships in: 1. the managerial decisions in the choice of derivative and reinsurance use. 2. the allocation of asset risks. 3. the determination of underwriting activities as well as liabiity risks. 4. the adequacy of capital levels.

Description: This paper discusses a theoretical framework for Enterprise Risk Management, risk dynamics within property-casualty insurance companies, empirical findings on widely used risk models, and examples of effective risk models.

Description: This paper discusses mathematical modeling and pricing of 'Stable Value' financial products offered to pension plan providers. These products target a risk-averse population of investors who have a significant preference for a stability of returns. The paper offers a quantitative methodology that reflects a decision making process applicable in the situation of incomplete markets where traditional arbitrage free arguments are invalid.

Description: This report provides the results of a VA survey on policyholder behavior in the tail on VA products containing guaranteed minimum benefits.

Description: This paper considers the question of whether or not the growth in the size of financial statements witnessed over the last several years has yielded an increase in the quality of disclosure around issues of financial risk and to what extent this disclosure is satisfying the perceived needs of readers of the financial statements, as represented by the investment analyst community. The question is addressed by presenting the results of research consisting of 1 the review and analysis of the disclosures addressing issues of financial risk contained within financial statements issued from 1999 to 2004 by 25 major insurance companies operating in the US and 2 the interviewing of 5 insurance industry analysts to understand their perceptions of what is good and bad about financial disclosure practices of life insurance companies.

Description: This program allows the user to explore in great detail a technical problem that has occupied a number of investors, financial writers and especially retirees, during the last few years, as the baby boomers start to approach retirement. Namely, what is the probability that one will run out of money before running out of life, if his or her current standard of living is maintained? This is a zip file which includes the Retirement Probability Analyzer software, an instruction manual and a PowerPoint presentation explaining the program.

Description: The Stochastic Volatility, SV, model is used for capturing the empirical properties of financial time series. This paper overviews those properties and compares the SV model with the heavy-tailed error distribution Student t-distribution and the SV model with the normal error distribution. The Simulated Maximum Likelihood, SML, method is applied to estimate the parameters and the latent volatility.

Description: This paper represents a brief progress report on research, being sponsored by the Casualty Actuarial Society and the Society of Actuaries, in the area of modeling of economic series. In particular, research is being undertaken to provide a foundation for the actuarial community’s modeling of a variety of economic variables, including interest rates, equity returns, inflation, unemployment rates, and real estate price levels. The specific objectives of this research are to provide a summary of the literature in the area of economic scenario modeling, identify data sources and methodologies in this area useful to the actuarial profession, and produce working software for economic modeling, including appropriate documentation, to be made available to the general actuarial community in order to allow actuaries to use and build upon this research. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 2004, Vol. 1.

Description: Equity-indexed annuities [EIAs] can be viewed as mutual funds wrapped around with various guarantees. A recent paper derived a closed form formula for pricing this dynamic guarantee if early withdrawal from the fund [before maturity] is not permitted. This paper studies the pricing of dynamic protection without a maturity date, i.e., the investor chooses the date to cash in the fund accumulation.

Description: In this paper, we propose measures of the risk that the value of the liabilities becomes larger than the value of the assets, and this especially for insurance companies. We study probabilities of mismatching and a degree of mismatching in unsegmented and multidimensional models of the balance, in which we stress the influence of interest rates on the active and passive side of the balance.

Description: This paper reports on the findings of a working group established in 1999 by the SOA's Finance Practice Area to look at how the insurance industry measures and monitors risk through risk position reporting. Also the working group established industry standard practices in risk position reporting and reported on a number of areas for possible improvement in such reporting.

Description: Chapter 8 of the Models for Retirement Policy Analysis. This chapter describes MINT, or Modeling Income in the Near Term, which is one of three retirement income and social security models now being developed in the Office of Research, Evaluation, and Statistics of the Social Security Administration. The accessibility, ease of use, cost as well as the strengths and limitations of the approach are addressed.

Description: The Society of Actuaries seeks to provide actuaries of life insurance companies with a systematic approach for estimating the adverse effects of economic developments that could impede insurer performance. The performance measurements include 1. Return on Equity, 2. Return on Assets, and 3. Increase in Surplus and Capial. Toward that end, this study combines market and economic factors with insurer-specific data to form dynamic financial models of life insurers. Empirical analysis is based on annual data from 1985 through 1995 for 1,593 life insurers. By identifying important exogenous and insurer-specific factors related to life insurer performance, this study provides a basis for actuaries to build dynamic financial models for individual insurers. The study also identifies and describes several web sites that provide access to relevant economic and financial data. Also see the SOA website research page for excel spread sheets that have the charts that should be inserted in this report

Description: By identifying specific exogenous and insurer specific factors related to life-insurer performance, this study provides a basis for actuaries to build dynamic financial models for individual insurers. The Life Insurers performance measurements are 1. Return on Equity, 2. Return on Assets and 3. Increase in Capital and Surplus. This paper has been submitted to the North American Actuarial Journal for publication considerations. This documents the specific charts embedded in the report. Please see the SOA web site for the detail report.

Description: Chapter 11 from the Models for Retirement Policy Analysis. PIMS is a microsimulation model that produces a distribution of PBGC’s exposure over a defined time interval. This chapter describes the major components of PIMS, the data types in PIMS, the PIMS simulation process, simulation activities, and current output.

Description: Chapter 10 of the Models for Retirement Policy Analysis. This chapter describes the Macroeconomic-Demographic Model of the U.S. Retirement Income System used to investigate alternative approaches to investment of the OASDI trust funds.

Description: The financing for Social Security is a pay-as-you-go system, rather than the full-reserve system utilized in private insurance, and the financing conditions of the trust funds have more uncertainty than does the reserve in private insurance. Traditionally, the financing conditions have been decided by a deterministic approach using economic and demographic assumptions that rely upon negotiation among experts at various government agencies. This paper proposes an econometric approach, called the 'co-integrated multivariate time series model,' for forecasting the financing conditions of the trust funds. This stochastic approach not only establishes the interrelationships but also clarifies the co-movements among the economic assumptions. Furthermore, it helps analyze the original assumptions rather than the differences of the nonstationary assumption variables adopted by researchers in the past that are more difficult to interpret. Use of this approach permits the assessment of the probability distribution of the future balance of trust funds instead of assessing estimates from the three alternative deterministic assumptions. This distribution will provide policy-makers with a better assessment of stability of the trust funds.

Description: Design and future maintenance of an asset portfolio backing a new line of business is critical for proper asset and liability management for that business. Most portfolio optimization methods utilize linear or quadratic programming and require the user to specify the asset and liability attributes and cash flows into the program. The programmer must also supply an objective function to allow the program to find the optimal asset mix for the associated liabilities. Two problems with this approach are that the liability cash flows are fairly static and that one must frequently rebalance the portfolio. An alternative approach would be to develop a corporate model of both the assets and liabilities and incorporate various economic scenarios as input into the model. Asset strategies would be measured against a specific objective function that is calculated by the corporate model. Unfortunately, the majority of maximization algorithms available are very time consuming, and obtaining a reasonable portfolio mix becomes impractical. This paper overcomes this difficulty by using a very rapid optimization method from the chemical engineering profession called the Floppy Triangle. The paper includes an example of the use of this process to determine an optimal portfolio. It also discusses modifications of the algorithm that is required when the shorting of assets is not permitted.

Description: This paper analyzes the accuracy of the principal models used by U.S. insurance regulators to predict insolvencies in the property-liability insurance industry and compares these models with a relatively new solvency testing approach- cash flow simulation. Specifically, the authors compare the risk-based capital [RBC] system introduced by the National Association of Insurance Commissioners [NAIC] in 1994, the 'FAST' [audit ratio] system used by the NAIC, and a cash flow simulation model developed by the authors. Both the RBC and FAST systems are static, ratio based approaches to solvency testing, whereas the cash flow simulation model implements dynamic financial analysis. Logistic regression analysis is used to test the models for a large sample of solvent and insolvent property-liability insurers, using data from the years 1990-1992 to predict insolvencies over three-year prediction horizons. The authors find that the FAST system dominates RBC as a static method for predicting insurer insolvencies. Further, they find the cash flow simulation variables add significant explanatory power to the regressions and lead to more accurate solvency prediction than the ratio-based models taken alone.

Description: Chapter 6 of the Models for Retirement Policy Analysis. This chapter describes DYNACAN, a dynamic microsimulation model developed and maintained in the Office of the Chief Actuary OCA of the Canada Pension Plan. It simulates the basic demographic and economic events relevant for calculation of CPP contributions and benefits. The strengths and limitations of the approach are addressed as well as accessibility and ease of use.

Description: This paper develops a simplified model for a pension fund, both deterministic and stochastic versions are presented. The probability distribution of the fund is derived incorporating the claims distribution and other parameters. Expected value and the variance of the fund are derived. Modifications required for the model when the interest rate is a moving average process are developed. From Actuarial Research Clearing House 1998 Vol. 2.

Description: A study on modeling for retirement policy analysis. This initial chapter describes the scope of the project with detail on the variety of modeling approaches reviewed.

Description: Chapter 5 of the Models for Retirement Policy Analysis. This chapter describes CORSIM, the Cornell Microsimulation Model, which is a large dynamic microsimulation model developed and maintained at Cornell University. CORSIM is a large-scale dynamic microsimulation model. It simulates the basic demographic and socioeconomic events that characterize the socioeconomic conditions of the population. Strengths and limitations of the approach are addressed as well as accessibilty and ease of use.

Description: Chapter 4 of Models for Retirement Policy Analysis. The PRISM Pension and Retirement Income Simulation Model is a dynamic microsimulation model designed to simulate the retirement income and long term care utilization and financing of the elderly population. The strengths and limitations of the approach are addressed as well as accessibility and ease of use.

Description: Chapter 3 of the Models for Retirement Policy Analysis. This chapter describes the Dynamic Simulation of Model Income DYNASIM which was the first large scale dynamic microsimulation model of the socioeconomic status and behavior of individuals and families. The strengths and limitations of the approach are addressed as well as accessibility and ease of use.

Description: Chapter 2 of the Models For Retirement Policy Analysis. This chapter describes microsimulation analysis and the basic features of microsimulation models. It provides background for the description of each of the microsimulation models reviewed in this report. Strengths and limitations of these models are addressed.

Description: The main aim of this paper is to apply some of the techniques of modern time series and econometric analysis to analyse investment data in order to better understand the nature of long run relationships in investment series typically used in stochastic investment models. The paper attempts to identify and address fundamental issues that need to be considered before developing a particular stochastic investment model.

Description: This paper addresses the evaluation of long-term returns when the short interest rate is modeled by a general diffusion process. By deriving the long-term return dynamics and invoking the Feyman-Kac formula, the long-term return is represented as the solution of a partial differential equation. A finite difference method is derived for the valuation of the long-term return. The method could be used for hedging interest rate risk, pricing and managing interest rate derivatives and interest rate sensitive insurance products. Numerical examples are included.

Description: This paper explores the flexibility of kernel estimation as a means of nonparametric graduation and relates it to moving-weighted-average graduation. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1995, Vol. 47.