Description: This SOA research report produced by Kamakura Corporation helps illuminate credit risk modeling techniques within the life insurance industry. It includes a review of available research on the subject from academic and industry sources, the development and distribution of a survey on actual techniques used within the industry, and all associated analysis. The finance and economics literature review provides a historical review of academic research on credit modeling with Altman Z-scores, Merton’s structural model and more recent “reduced form models” The industry literature includes discussions of the various credit modeling techniques, factor-based approaches, credit migration models, structural models, reduced form models, hybrid models, actuarial models and credit scoring models. As credit risk modeling is an extremely broad topic, the scope of the survey is narrowed to particular asset classes and functions. There were 22 responses in total to the survey from locations in Canada, Europe and the United states.

Description: Discusses how a small health insurance company may be able to create and successfully maintain its wealth through careful actuarial model considerations used in calculating reserves. A traditional and a conservative approach to calculating the reserves are compared. The conservative approach was found particularly useful when estimating reserves for an individual health insurance company with numerous product lines each relatively small in volume.

Description: Statistics show that the risk of fatality associated with motorcycle crashes far exceeds that of automobiles hereby Connecticut introduced mandatory motorcycle safety training. This paper develops a unifying framework to quantify the effectiveness of such mandatory programs and to translate this in terms of a possible insurance rate reduction.

Description: This is the final report of a survey of life insurance companies on the cost of implementing the new principle-based statutory accounting framework.

Description: This is a final report for a research project to create reference material that addresses the methods and techniques for quantifying margins for uncertainty in actuarial assumptions under a Principle-based statutory accounting framework.

Description: This report summarizes the results of a research project undertaken by the Society of Actuaries to study the possible effects of the International Accounting Standards Board’s IASB Discussion Paper describing its Preliminary Views on Insurance Contracts on nine representative U.S. life, health and annuity products.

Description: This paper develops an analytical method for evaluating the utility of tax-planning activities that cause initial statutory surplus strain and expands the horizon beyond normal pricing applications to the evaluation of other activities requiring the initial investment of statutory surplus.

Description: This paper describes risk-factor-dependent multiple decrements and actuarial cost functions as a general compartment model, a discrete time and discrete state stochastic model of morbidity and mortality processes. For large numbers of risk factors, the model is extended to its natural continuous time and state form. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1991, Vol. 43.

Description: The excess spread approach introduced in this paper addresses the true economic profitability of investment oriented products by looking at the spread between the earnings rate on the assets and the rate required to be earned on the assets to satisfy the liabilities. For many products, an important part of the liability cost is the value of interest rate options embedded in the policies. The excess spread approach incorporates an option-pricing technique that is sufficiently flexible to handle different interest rate environments.

Description: This paper illustrates a procedure for analyzing the sources of profit under FAS 97 and suggests an analytical procedure for reflecting actual experience and revised future assumptions in the recalculation of the estimated gross profit defined by FAS 97.

Description: In this paper, a general model for a pension plan involving growth with respect to the population, salaries, and retirement benefits is used to study contribution patterns that may arise under different actuarial cost methods. Detailed results are presented for the case where the growth of population and the growth of salaries are described by exponential functions. Economic implications are presented and discussed. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1979, Vol. 31.

Description: This paper presents multiple book reviews: Reports from Staff of U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Ways and Means and U.S. Senate Committee on Finance, Reports in Connection with Social Security Legislation 1975-77, 'Statement on Cost Comparisons of Individual Life Insurance Policies', by Canadian Institute of Actuaries, 'Investment Activities of Life Insurance Companies' from Huebner Foundation Lectures, 'The Life Insurance Industry's Marketing Dilemma' by Johns, 'The Future of Social Security' by Munnell, 'Social Security - Today and Tomorrow' by Ball, 'Mortality Table Construction' by Batten, 'Mortality Table Construction' by Batten, 'The Crisis in Social Security - Problems and Prospects' by Boskin, 'A History of Interest Rates' by Homer, 'Indexation of Pensions and Other Benefits' by Robert Myers, 'Life Insurance Accounting' by Strain, '1978 Annual Report of the Board of Trustees of the Federal Hospital Insurance Trust Fund...' by US Congress. Brief summaries of additional readings are also included.

Description: A new approach to computing annual pension costs, based on an open-group projection of the participant population for a number of years, was described in detail in a paper published in the 1975 Transactions, entitled 'The Forecast Valuation Method for Pension Plans.' That paper described the operation of such a cost method at the initial valuation date. This paper discusses several alternative approaches to projection valuation methods and also describes how costs should be computed at valuation dates after the first one. In addition, the author illustrates projected contributions and asset buildups under both traditional [closed-group] cost methods and projected [open-group] cost methods, for a number of years under a variety of assumptions as to the growth rate of the participant group. Projection valuation methods have not been described heretofore in sufficient detail to make it possible for actuaries to use them on a recurring basis or for the Internal Revenue Service to make a determination as to the acceptability of such approaches for computing tax-deductible pension plan contributions. It is the hope of the author that this paper will fill both of those gaps. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1977, Vol. 29.

Description: This section presents book reviews and summaries of recent publications. Reviews: '1975 Annual Reports of the Board of Trustees of the Federal OASDI Trust Funds...' by the US Congress, 'Providing Adequate Retirement Income' by Schulz, Carrin, Krupp, Peschke, Sclar and Steenberge, 'Ernst & Ernst GAAP - Stock Life Companies' by Posnak, 'Reports of the Quadrennial Advisory Council on Social Security' by US Government, 'Fundamentals of Private Pensions' by McGill. Digests also included.

Description: This paper looks at mathematical problems formulated in either explicit or implicit form. Followed by several discussion papers submitted

Description: The actuarial profession is faced with a problem of determining delta-ized reserves on a basis which will include appropriate provision for adverse deviations in mortality, lapses, interest rates, and expense rates. This paper describes briefly a method which could be used to solve this Followed by papers submitted by 2 authors problem in a flexible manner.

Description: This paper outlines a method of parametric modeling that may be used to produce forecasts and forecast intervals that will convey a measure of the reliance that may be placed on the forecasts. Followed by 2 discussion papers submitted

Description: In this paper, a mathematical model is constructed to study the deviations of claims, investment performance, operating expenses, and lapse expenses as random stochastic processes. Discussions of the paper submitted by 2 readers follows

Description: This paper describes a method of comparing net costs of dissimilar life insurance contracts. The principles are consistent with those of the interest-adjusted method recommended by the Moorhead committee. The significance of the results, possible applications of the method, and some concerns and conclusions are discussed.

Description: This paper deals with credibility as applied to group insurance, where the problem is to estimate the future claim rate of a group as a function of both its own past claim rate and the average claim rate observed for similar groups.

Description: This is a discussion about computer models and simulation tools for life insurance companies. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1969, Vol. 21, No. 59AB

Description: Provides a theoretical basis for determining an insurer's price-earnings ratio, discusses the effect on earnings of changes in investment income, and discusses the effect on surplus and earnings of changes in reserve basis.

Description: The purpose of this paper is to describe the application of the Monte Carlo technique to a practical situation in a company, group term rate making. It included a discussion of some of the problems encountered and the solution to these problems. Followed by several discussion papers submitted

Description: This paper surveys the actuarial techniques connected with salary scale mathematics for the valuation of defined benefit pension plans. Followed by several discussion papers submitted

Description: Presentation of some of the factors to be considered, and approaches which might be employed, in valuing a life insurance company.