Description: The Federal funds rate increased by 4.25% in 2022 with further increases in 2023, which have already resulted in a liquidity crisis for a few banks. As the rapid increase of the interest rates pushed the new money rates above the yields of many life insurers’ investment portfolios, insurance companies are facing a dilemma between compressed margins from peer pressure and the concern with liquidity shortfalls and realized capital losses should mass surrenders happen. This paper discussed main emerging risks under rising interest rate environment, and several ways to mitigate these risks.

Description: The cyber insurance market looks like it’s growing—rapidly, in fact. However, there’s more to the cyber insurance market than the outward appearance of strong growth. Worldwide aggregate premium’s upward trend may even be cause for alarm. The increase in premium against a flat rate of insured exposure is a key sign that the market could turn from growth to constriction if a solution isn’t found in the near future. If the cyber insurance sector hopes to reach such lofty goals as exceeding $30 billion in global premium by 2028, it’s going to need more capital. Whether directly into the insurance sector or via support from reinsurance and retrocession, fresh capital should help insurers achieve greater market penetration, build a broader foundation for ongoing expansion, and chart a course for long-term sustainable profitable growth. The same sources capital insurers have used since the early days of the market won’t be enough, though. Thankfully, the insurance linked securities (ILS) market seems poised to help, particularly with several promising recent transactions. New sources of capital could bolster the foundation for future cyber re/insurance growth.

Description: Chairperson's summary of Joint Risk Management Section (JRMS) Council accomplishments during the 2021-2022 Section Council year, as part of the December 2022 Risk Management newsletter. Includes an introduction to new council members, appreciation to those departing the Council, and introduces the new JRMS Council Leadership. Discusses the accomplishments made, areas of focus and activities underway which benefit JRMS Section members.

Description: Chairperson's summary of Joint Risk Management Section (JRMS) Council accomplishments during the 2021-2022 Section Council year, as part of the December 2022 Risk Management newsletter. Includes an introduction to new council members, appreciation to those departing the Council, and introduces the new JRMS Council Leadership. Discusses the accomplishments made, areas of focus and activities underway which benefit JRMS Section members.

Description: In this article, a numerical comparison of two commonly used FIA valuation methodologies is conducted to help insurers decide on the best methodology to use under GAAP LDTI and VM-22. We compared two modeling approaches to project the future index credits with the annual point-to-point crediting formula: Tthe stochastic equity crediting model and the deterministic option budget crediting model. The analysis is then extended to different levels of option budgets and the monthly average crediting formula. The advantages and disadvantages of the two equity return projecting approaches are also highlighted and will be discussed later in the report.

Description: In this article, we summarize inflationary factors that may result in a sharp increase in interest rates and implications for life insurer convexity risk exposure, most notably to dynamic policyholder lapsation. We further provide insights into potential ALM strategies to mitigate this convexity risk. Due to the prolonged low-interest rate environment and low minimum interest rate guarantees offered to policyholders, liability convexity is higher than prior historical periods, which results in life insurers’ ALM positions being extremely vulnerable to short-term interest rate spikes. Convexity mismatches cause issues for life insurers under both rising and declining interest rate scenarios. This means that life insurers are not compensated for taking convexity risk and, therefore, convexity matching should always be considered in the asset optimization process. There are mixed signals from policymakers and financial markets regarding potential inflationary and sharply rising interest rate scenarios. The key takeaway is that life insurers are not compensated for taking convexity risk and it is the right time for insurers to review convexity exposure. There are different approaches available to mitigate convexity exposure through rebalancing of asset positions and hedges within each life insurer’s risk limits.

Description: In this article, we summarize inflationary factors that may result in a sharp increase in interest rates and implications for life insurer convexity risk exposure, most notably to dynamic policyholder lapsation. We further provide insights into potential ALM strategies to mitigate this convexity risk. Due to the prolonged low-interest rate environment and low minimum interest rate guarantees offered to policyholders, liability convexity is higher than prior historical periods, which results in life insurers’ ALM positions being extremely vulnerable to short-term interest rate spikes. Convexity mismatches cause issues for life insurers under both rising and declining interest rate scenarios. This means that life insurers are not compensated for taking convexity risk and, therefore, convexity matching should always be considered in the asset optimization process. There are mixed signals from policymakers and financial markets regarding potential inflationary and sharply rising interest rate scenarios. The key takeaway is that life insurers are not compensated for taking convexity risk and it is the right time for insurers to review convexity exposure. There are different approaches available to mitigate convexity exposure through rebalancing of asset positions and hedges within each life insurer’s risk limits.

Description: Feature article that discusses how insurance and banking business models have continued to grow in complexity over the past 50 years—from simple and local risk exposures to the current environment of complex and global exposures

Description: This article introduces the JRMS library, how one can access it and what books are added this year.

Description: This article introduces the JRMS library, how one can access it and what books are added this year.

Description: Read the April 2020 issue of Risk Management, published by the Joint Risk Management Section. Newsletters provide practical information for the working actuary, articles on trends that impact sections and news about section activities.

Description: Read the Joint Risk Management Section, Issue 44, May 2019 in french.

Description: Insight on SOA research.

Description: The IAA Risk Book provides a set of high quality reference materials for use in managing the uncertainty of insurer risks.

Description: This article presents the results of the survey interviews, examining best practices as well as those areas that still remain challenging.

Description: French language version of Risk Management, August 2014 newsletter.

Description: Complete issue of the August 2014 Risk Management newsletter.

Description: This article discusses the details of what happened in equity repo in 2013.

Description: This article argues that wealth managers should advocate dynamic spending in proportion to survival probabilities, adjusted up for exogenous pension income and down for longevity risk aversion. The authors criticize the rule of thumb of spending a fixed 'x' percent of assets for retirement planning purposes.

Description: This article recommends actions to key stakeholders to address the systemic risk in the retirement systems as employer and government based pensions reduce, and more emphasis is placed on personal savings.

Description: Listing and description of key articles in August 2011 issue of Risk Management. Topics include Predictive Modeling, Risk management and Solvency II.

Description: In this article, the author discusses the need to create a systemic risk regulator.

Description: This article focuses on how a risk appetite framework can help a company manage the “three-headed monster” and why a risk appetite framework is critical to effective business and risk management at both the corporate and product levels.

Description: This article discusses how the industry as a whole is revisiting its risk management strategies in the wake of the financial crisis.

Description: In this article the author compares ERM issues, strategies and scenarios to the process of driving to work on a four-lane highway.

Description: This article discusses the system in systemic risk and suggests management approaches for dealing with systemic events.

Description: This article focuses on risk mitigation strategies and intends to demonstrate how an organization, a financial institution in this case, realized significant positive impact on its bottom line by integrating risk management in its overall business development strategy.

Description: In this article, the author compares sailing to risk management.

Description: This article serves as a Solvency II primer by first introducing the Solvency II framework and then identifying several implementation issues that are still being resolved.

Description: This article provides some insights into risk appetite and how it relates to ERM.

Description: This article addresses the key capital and risk management issues immediately confronting the industry.

Description: The problem facing risk distributors is that product pricing is sticky, whereas the market price of risk can be quite volatile. This disconnection can become particularly severe during market downturns. The problem facing risk insurers is maintaining market share in benign market conditions when the market price of risk is low. Strategies that are dynamic with respect to time are difficult in practice, since they require more capital in volatile markets.

Description: It is the belief of this author that the subprime mortgage mess was none other than a Ponzi scheme repackaged into 21st century financial engineering clothes. What makes this scheme particularly disastrous is that the 21st century Ponzi mortgages were packaged and sold to investors and then trillions of dollars of derivatives were constructed based on the underlying mortgages, magnifying the problem by orders of magnitude.

Description: The new ways of calculating capital requirements are relatively untested. We may be witnessing the results of such a test today. As of this writing, the global economy is almost surely entering a serious recession. One of the reasons for this appears to be inadequate capital provisioning. The failure of capital regimes to protect financial entities and, by extension, their customers has had unfortunate effects on the markets and economies of the world.

Description: Modern economies are based on the premise that all the main players look after themselves. The bankruptcy and limited liability laws gave property speculators and banks a put option on society so they could walk away from losses above their capital base, yet enjoy all the gains of such speculation. They acted in what they believed were their own interests. It seems that society – well aware of what was happening – did not effectively look after its own interest and now must pay the price.

Description: Property-liability insurers use reinsurance as a cost-efficient substitute for capital, but in a disruptive event, reinsurance prices and availability can change sharply.

Description: A collection of essays written on the current financial crisis, lessons learned and future implications.

Description: The liquidity crisis and the insufficient depth of the market led to a strong correlation crisis: many risks that could be considered as close to mutually independent in the classical regime suddenly became strongly positively dependent. More correlation crisis may happen in the future. We need to be more careful with black-box tools and to train what I would define as “quanlitative analysts” “Quanls” in the Enterprise Risk Management ERM process, that is risk managers who are able to lead interdisciplinary ERM studies from a jointly qualitative and quantitative point of view, with an emphasis on dynamics.

Description: From a simple mathematical model of the underlying economics, I first predicted this crisis in July of 2004. An economic dynamic relating very low interest rates to the structure of the demand curve in the housing market made this outcome foreseeable, indeed inevitable. The current crisis had a mathematical cause. Essay on the collapse of the housing bubble.

Description: This article discusses the impact of rising interest rates on annuity writers and life insurers and the risk management challenges it presents. Falling interest rates were addressed as well.