Description: Risk management techniques do not include system science. System science requires that the uncertainty of the world is incorporated into the results. The articles explains the difference between risk and uncertainty. Learn how risk practices create an overoptimistic view of future outcomes.

Description: Join us for the Pandemics & Paradigm Shifts: ERM in an Intensely Dynamic World panel discussion, where industry and regulatory perspectives will help provide insight into a number of topics. Expect interactive dialogue opportunities based on the conversation between the panelists and the audience. Key topics that will be conversed about, but the panel is not limited to, include a brief review of historical paradigm shifts and subsequent insurer failures, best practices and an outlook on the ultra-dynamic world of today and consideration of a company's enterprise risk management framework as it affects ratings and insurance department examinations.

Description: This report discusses management decision making practices and the need for actuaries to build the appropriate level of variability for management actions in stochastic models to achieve a more realistic range of future experience among the stochastic scenarios.

Description: The monograph walks the reader through the hindsight, insight and foresight building process while discussing theoretical and practical issues supporting the building of valid forecasts with provenance for each of these schema examples. That is, the analyst can document the iterative ‘profiling change processes’ mindscape and landscape elements by which and through which the successful forecast is built. This kind of forecast construction ameliorates the ‘black box’ problem of generating pattern output without an understanding of the pattern’s creation or contextual meaning that is often seen when using other methods, particularly machine learning and artificial intelligence. This issue is discussed, referencing appropriate thought leaders.

Description: The Casualty Actuarial Society, Canadian Institute of Actuaries, and the Society of Actuaries' Joint Risk Management Section and the Joint Risk Management Research Committee are pleased to make available a new report on the application of ERM. Authored by Bonnie-Jeanne MacDonald, Sim Segal, Michael Wolfson and Heidi Walsh, the report provides a novel demonstration on how ERM can be applied to serve the Canadian public by informing decision makers on the risks facing the current and future delivery of long-term care.

Description: This article introduces a non-traditional type of economic scenario generator that relies on dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models are complex macroeconomics models and have been increasingly popular in central banks for analyzing monetary policies.

Description: The management of the investments of an insurance enterprise has undergone a considerable evolution since the pioneering work of Redington in the mid 20th century. Best practices have evolved to incorporate ever more complex insurance liabilities, expanding investment asset classes and global market opportunities. Strategic asset allocation (SAA), liability driven investing, and other robust optimization approaches form the core of the professional management of insurance company investments.

Description: This report looks at identifying drivers of systemic risk to China’s insurance industry and develops a measurement method for systemic risk as well as systemic risk dependence between the insurance industry and other industries.

Description: This report looks at identifying drivers of systemic risk to China’s insurance industry and develops a measurement method for systemic risk as well as systemic risk dependence between the insurance industry and other industries.

Description: The speakers will discuss the replication of long-term options, including a discussion of issues such as liquidity, transaction costs, slippage, impact of policyholder behavior, and machine learning algorithms to improve hedge effectiveness.

Description: The speaker will discuss the training of neural networks to compute future Greeks of liabilities (or options) without the use of nested stochastics.

Description: The proposed revisions to the variable annuity statutory framework and the FASB targeted improvement for long duration contract, motivate life insurance companies to re-evaluate their hedging strategy. Recently proposed revisions of AG 43/VM-21 and C3 Phase II, reward companies that have a clearly defined hedging strategy, if the companies can demonstrate that the valuation model and capital model can estimate real hedge performance accurately. The speakers of this session will discuss the hedging implication of the proposed AG 43/VM-21 and C3 Phase II framework. Additionally, methodology computational requirements, back-testing results under different economic scenarios and the resulting hedge credits of different hedging strategies will be compared, including explicit dynamic hedge and implicit dynamic hedge. The speakers will also touch on the impact of rebalance frequency on the performance of dynamic hedge. Case studies will be presented to provide guidance on practical implementation.

Description: Learn industry best practices including challenges faced by retirees, such as needing exposure to growth, most exposed to sequencing risk, and the need for smooth returns to avoid poor investor behavior caused by risk aversion. Other topics will include how to set investment objectives which consider the members’ real-world needs and how to build portfolios and implement risk management strategies to meet those objectives. The speaker will provide real-life examples/case studies.

Description: As sponsored by the Canadian Institute of Actuaries (CIA), Casualty Actuarial Society (CAS), and Society of Actuaries (SOA), the study looks at causes of insolvency and decisions made by management, regulators, and policyholders over the life cycle of the insolvency. Further, this study considers ways the profession can be equipped to prevent or mitigate future insolvencies. In addition to directly benefitting the profession, the work is also intended to assist other insurance industry practitioners in understanding the complexities of insurance company solvency and the benefit of keeping the actuarial profession in the forefront of company management, operations, and regulatory communication

Description: Managed strategies as underlying investments in VA/FIA products have seen spectacular growth since the financial crisis. The speakers of these sessions will share their views on the development of this market and what is expected to unfold over the next 12 months in regard to the next generation of products and fund-based strategies.

Description: Reinsurance has been available for VA Guarantees for over 20 years. During that time, the reinsurance market for VA Guarantees has undergone frequent and sometimes violent transformations. Where does the market stand today? What forms and structures of reinsurance are available? Which VA Guarantee designs and features are easier to reinsure? Is reinsurance offered on both newly issued policies as well as in force/legacy books, and which vintages are difficult to reinsure? In an age of sophisticated hedging programs, what role does a reinsurer play in helping a VA writer manage this highly volatile risk? In this session, we will hear from a reinsurer that is actively writing new VA Guarantee reinsurance treaties in the U.S. and around the world, and from a VA writer that has successfully partnered with a reinsurer to enhance its VA product offering.

Description: The CIA, SOA and Joint Risk Management Section of the CAS, CIA, and the SOA sponsored a whitepaper on the application of ERM at a federal government level.

Description: A primer on extreme event modeling and mitigation for practitioners, it covers the complete cycle of extreme event risk management, from identifying experience data sources, to extreme event detection, to modeling and dependence analysis, and finally to monitoring and mitigation.

Description: This paper provides a summary of the Dec. 2012 summit of the Natural Resource Sustainability Group and invited experts.

Description: 2011 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, Chicago. This study investigates whether simulation-based models can be used to predict liquidity risk for banks, which must comply with Basel III by January 2015. The paper looks at the process of developing a measurement framework using Black-Scholes and Merton’s asset-based models to measure liquidity risk.

Description: 2011 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, Chicago. This paper uses a case-study research design looking at two companies: Infosys and Rolls-Royce Corp. The goal of the research is to develop an explanation of how ERM brings about the strategic implications or its “promise” as it is popularly known in the ERM circle. The influential factors and how they are linked to the ERM process of achieving strategic implications are highlighted.

Description: 2011 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, Chicago. This paper explores cognitive and behavioral theories that can be applied to explain why emerging risk is often overlooked, downplayed or ignored. It also proposes an innovative framework for managing emerging risk within an overall enterprise risk management program.

Description: 2011 SOA Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, Chicago. The stated purpose of this paper is to consider whether a more comprehensive and timely measurement framework for risk exposure is now needed and to examine one possible approach. This paper proposes a new approach to risk measurement that, along with capital measurement and more rigorous oversight, will allow banks an ability to manage risk.

Description: 2011 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, Chicago. This is the abstract of the entitled paper.

Description: 2011 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, Chicago. This paper highlights the impact that a change in conditional data would have on a variety of risk assessment models, with specific emphasis on investment forecasting.

Description: In this article, the author discusses the capital shortfall an insurer faces because of the longevity risk on immediate annuities.

Description: Description of the increased gamma of the liabilities of a portfolio of variable annuities. Discussion of the sensitivity of gamma due to changes in policyholder behavior.

Description: A research report that first defines ERM and provides the results of an applicable literature search with hyperlinks and then describes the current state of Enterprise Risk Management practices for health organizations. Areas covered: 1. Operational Risks. 2. Balance sheet risks. 3. Pricing discipline. 4. Asset risks. 5. Learnings. 6. Emerging risks.

Description: Current risk management approaches for variable annuity business are not working very well in today's market turmoil.

Description: The management of The Guardian Life Insurance Company of America Guardian decided during 2006 to perform an economic capital EC analysis, with results to be delivered in the spring of 2007. A second generation EC analysis EC 2.0 was conducted from fall 2007 through spring 2008. This article describes EC 2.0.

Description: This article provides an overview of the commonly used structural credit risk modeling approach that is less familiar to the actuarial community.

Description: A research project with the Society of Actuaries on interest rate hedging on traditional life and health insurance.

Description: The article discusses how strategic planning and strategic risk management are intertwined.

Description: This article describes how insurers can expand the reach of their efforts with regard to Economic Capital EC into the broader enterprise risk management process. Some experts contend that can be done by shifting the focus towards value. EC has the potential to shed new light on valuable opportunities for insurers.

Description: This paper discusses a theoretical framework for Enterprise Risk Management, risk dynamics within property-casualty insurance companies, empirical findings on widely used risk models, and examples of effective risk models.

Description: The thrust of this article is that while ERM starts out as a compliance and corporate governance tool, well managed companies use ERM as a strategic tool that will help them increase shareholder value. To do so requires a synthesis of the actuarial techniques of insurance and the capital markets perspectives of corporate finance.

Description: This paper uses Interpretive Structural Modeling concepts and techniques to better understand a company's overall risk profile. By viewing all of the risks in a firm as an integrated system, one can apply a computer-assisted learning process to construct a structural graph and illustrate the risk interrelationships. From 2006 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, M-AS06-1.

Description: This paper builds a model that quantifies the natural hedging benefits of a portfolio of both variable annuities and equity indexed annuities. The model is based on risk-neutral option pricing theory and risk-adjusted performance measure, RAPM. Through a double-tier simulation framework, an optimum product mixture of those two contracts is achieved that provides the best RAPM and therefore deploys capital the most efficiently. From 2006 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, M-AS06-1.

Description: This paper presents a value-at-risk platform for integration of assets and liabilities in a rigorous risk management framework. The model measures all major risks faced by a P&C company. The paper demonstrates how this new technology can be used to assist in maximizing capital efficiency and migrating from a risk management environment governed almost exclusively by ad-hoc rules of thumb to one governed by true risk management principles. From 2006 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, M-AS06-1.

Description: In this article, the author describes the skills needed for the Chief Risk Officer and he offers why actuaries may, or may not, be best suited to fill the role.

Description: This article discusses the growing exposure of ERM and where it's headed in the future. The author predicts that the ERM discipline will go deeper to reflect better the realities in our enterprises and that the science of ERM will leap forward through combining analytical skills and business knowledge, and through blending the insights of financial economics with the tools of management science.

Description: 2003 Valuation Actuary Symposium, San Diego, CA. This session addressed the emerging practice where management is developing new ways to examine financial risks holistically in an integrated model.

Description: The author makes 10 predictions of how risk management will change over the next decade.

Description: This session from the Washington Spring Meeting provides an update on variable annuity VA riders, including guaranteed minimum death benefits GMDBs, guaranteed minimum income benefits GMIBs, guaranteed minimum accumulation benefits GMABs and guaranteed minimum withdrawal benefits GMWBs. From the Record of the Society of Actuaries, Volume 29, No. 1, Session 21pd.

Description: In this paper, we propose measures of the risk that the value of the liabilities becomes larger than the value of the assets, and this especially for insurance companies. We study probabilities of mismatching and a degree of mismatching in unsegmented and multidimensional models of the balance, in which we stress the influence of interest rates on the active and passive side of the balance.

Description: This session 160 TS of the 2001 SOA Annual Meeting explains Guaranteed minimum income benefits GMIBs, guaranteed minimum accumulation benefits GMABs, guaranteed minimum death benefits GMDBs, and death benefits designed to cover the approximate income tax on the gain in the contract all provide additional protection for the purchaser, but they may also bring added risk to the insurer. From the Record of the Society of Actuaries, Volume 27, No. 3, Session 160TS.

Description: This session 75PD of the New Orleans Annual Meeting analyzes derivatives contained in various insurance products and techniques used to hedge the derivative exposure. From the Record of the Society of Actuaries, Volume 27, No. 3, Session 75PD.

Description: This session 112 PD of the Toronto Spring Meeting covers principles developed during the Unified Valuation System UVS project of the American Academy of Actuaries with support from the Society of Actuaries and the Financial Reporting Section of the SOA. From the Record of the Society of Actuaries, Volume 27, No. 2.

Description: From session 23PD at a meeting of the Society of Actuaries held in San Diego, CA, June 22-23, 2000. Panelists discuss various techniques employed by insurers for managing the risks inherent in their variable annuity portfolios.

Description: Segregated Funds Seminar Illuminates Equity Guarantees Risks by G. Thomas Mitchell from The Financial Reporter, February 2000, Issue No. 41.

Description: In this session 94PD of the SOA Annual Meeting in New York the panel examines the communications link between the technical world of actuarial measurement based on cash-flow testing and the real world or daily and strategic decision making at top levels of insurance companies. From the Record of the Society of Actuaries, Vol. 24, No. 3.

Description: Panelists at this session of the SOA 1998 Maui I Spring Meeting presents their approach to an integrated risk management framework that assesses the level of risk in the organization and where it lies on the balance sheet.

Description: 1997 Valuation Actuary Symposium, Session 17 discusses market value measures and its uses in asset liability management.

Description: This session from the 1995 SOA Boston Meeting discusses constructing and using a comprehensive, credible risk management system with a concentration on C-3 risk. It also covers an example of option adjusted spread analysis for a single premium deferred annuity SPDA. From the Record of the Society of Actuaries, Vol. 21, No. 4b.

Description: Easy access computing power is harnessed to approximate ruin probabilities. The dynamics of the traditional insurance model are stated in the form of period to period constraints. This allows the development of a life-table with the survival probabilities for a given set of parameters. Given the spreadsheet approach of the model, sensitivity analysis to study the impact of different parameter values and loss variable distributions can be easily implemented.

Description: This session discussion is about various asset related items that are needed to perform necessary projections. From Record of the Society of Actuaries Vol. 15, No. 2.

Description: This session discussion is about methods for determining and adjusting contingency surplus. From Record of the Society of Actuaries Vol. 15, No. 2.