Description: Risk management techniques do not include system science. System science requires that the uncertainty of the world is incorporated into the results. The articles explains the difference between risk and uncertainty. Learn how risk practices create an overoptimistic view of future outcomes.

Description: How insurers can include a liquidity score and liquidity stress scenarios as part of their asset liability management (ALM) protocol.

Description: In this article, a numerical comparison of two commonly used FIA valuation methodologies is conducted to help insurers decide on the best methodology to use under GAAP LDTI and VM-22. We compared two modeling approaches to project the future index credits with the annual point-to-point crediting formula: Tthe stochastic equity crediting model and the deterministic option budget crediting model. The analysis is then extended to different levels of option budgets and the monthly average crediting formula. The advantages and disadvantages of the two equity return projecting approaches are also highlighted and will be discussed later in the report.

Description: This article introduces a non-traditional type of economic scenario generator that relies on dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models are complex macroeconomics models and have been increasingly popular in central banks for analyzing monetary policies.

Description: Summary of recent surveys to life actuaries regarding assumptions surrounding policyholder behavior in the tail for universal life with secondary guarantees and minimum guarantees on variable annuities. This information is intended to examine and ultimately give guidance to actuaries on how to set policyholder assumptions in extreme scenarios.

Description: As sponsored by the Canadian Institute of Actuaries (CIA), Casualty Actuarial Society (CAS), and Society of Actuaries (SOA), the study looks at causes of insolvency and decisions made by management, regulators, and policyholders over the life cycle of the insolvency. Further, this study considers ways the profession can be equipped to prevent or mitigate future insolvencies. In addition to directly benefitting the profession, the work is also intended to assist other insurance industry practitioners in understanding the complexities of insurance company solvency and the benefit of keeping the actuarial profession in the forefront of company management, operations, and regulatory communication

Description: French language version of Risk Management, August 2014 newsletter.

Description: Complete issue of the August 2014 Risk Management newsletter.

Description: This article discusses the concept of All models are wrong but some are useful.

Description: This article argues that wealth managers should advocate dynamic spending in proportion to survival probabilities, adjusted up for exogenous pension income and down for longevity risk aversion. The authors criticize the rule of thumb of spending a fixed 'x' percent of assets for retirement planning purposes.

Description: Important tools used in property & casualty P&C insurance—predictive modeling and data mining—can be applied to more effectively model policyholder behavior risks in variable annuity VA contracts. In this article, a case study is used to demonstrate how a predictive modeling approach can improve upon traditional methods used to model VA lapse behavior.

Description: In this article, the author discusses the capital shortfall an insurer faces because of the longevity risk on immediate annuities.

Description: Description of the increased gamma of the liabilities of a portfolio of variable annuities. Discussion of the sensitivity of gamma due to changes in policyholder behavior.

Description: Current risk management approaches for variable annuity business are not working very well in today's market turmoil.

Description: The management of The Guardian Life Insurance Company of America Guardian decided during 2006 to perform an economic capital EC analysis, with results to be delivered in the spring of 2007. A second generation EC analysis EC 2.0 was conducted from fall 2007 through spring 2008. This article describes EC 2.0.

Description: This article provides an overview of the commonly used structural credit risk modeling approach that is less familiar to the actuarial community.

Description: The thrust of this article is that while ERM starts out as a compliance and corporate governance tool, well managed companies use ERM as a strategic tool that will help them increase shareholder value. To do so requires a synthesis of the actuarial techniques of insurance and the capital markets perspectives of corporate finance.

Description: In this article, the author presents a case for using a Risk Return On Capital approach as a way to integrate desirable properties of the Economic Value Added approach and the Return On Risk-Adjusted Capital approach. The EVA approach has a shortcoming in that is does not reflect rating agency capital. The RORAC is computed as the ratio of expected total underwriting return to allocated risk capital, and represents the expected return for both benign and potentially consumptive usage of capital. The RROC approach measures returns after reflecting the mean rental cost of rating agency capital. Returns that are a reward for exposing capital to risk of loss are measured after reflecting the cost of carrying capital to support premium written and loss reserves.

Description: This article discusses the pending book entitled 'Dynamic Risk Modeling Handbook.' The proposed scope and outline of the book is reviewed. This is a revision of the 'DFA Handbook' which was published in 1995.

Description: This article describes an initiative of the Chief Risk Officer Forum to perform a study to benchmark internal models, so as to discuss the admissibility of these models for regulatory purposes in the context of Solvency II. The results of and reactions to that study are discussed.

Description: This article provides an excerpt of the results of a survey on policyholder behavior in the tail with respect to variable annuity guaranteed benefits. GMIB is specifically addressed.

Description: Competition for space in distribution channels has resulted in a proliferation of exotic options embedded in variable annuity products. This article discusses how this has created a need which can be addressed, in part, by hedging variable annuity guarantees with long-dated equity derivatives.

Description: In this article, the author describes the skills needed for the Chief Risk Officer and he offers why actuaries may, or may not, be best suited to fill the role.

Description: This article discusses the problems created by the options in unit-linked annuities in the UK, variable annuities in the US and segregated fund contracts in Canada. Methodology for valuing the guaranteed annuity option is presented.

Description: This article discusses the growing exposure of ERM and where it's headed in the future. The author predicts that the ERM discipline will go deeper to reflect better the realities in our enterprises and that the science of ERM will leap forward through combining analytical skills and business knowledge, and through blending the insights of financial economics with the tools of management science.