Description: Mortality trend risk affects pension plans, life insurers, annuity writers and insurers of workers’ compensation, where the tail claims are mostly annuities. As with many risk sources, mortality risk can be broken down into process risk, parameter risk and model risk. In this paper, process risk, parameter risk and model risk are discussed using the fitted models. Presented at 2010 Enterprise Risk Management Symposium, Society of Actuaries, April 12-15, 2010.

Description: Much of the push for ERM has come from regulators and rating agencies, but it is being applied in internal company decision-making as well. This paper reviews the progress made and the needs still outstanding in two key areas of application: optimal capital level for an insurer and risk-adjusted profitability of business units. The basic conclusion is that progress has been made in these areas, but more is needed. Building models is not emphasized—it will be assumed that a state-of-the art model is available. The emphasis is on using such models in decision-making.

Description: Abstract for the 2008 ERM Monograph paper, “ERM for Strategic Management – Status Report”

Description: This paper reviews data from the accident study for years 1930-1935 to see if there are any relationships between disabled worker mortality and standard mortality that might endure to the present. From the Actuarial Research Clearing House ARCH 1990 Vol. 1.

Description: This paper discusses some of the models used to quantify risk, note some areas where improvements in standard methods are needed, and in some cases suggest alternative approaches for risks in Property and Casualty Insurance and Life Insurance.

Description: This paper expands the calculation of a group's credibility factor from a traditional univariate one-dimensional single layer model to: 1. a univariate one dimensional two layer model, 2. a multivariate one dimensional single layer model, and 3. a univariate two dimensional single layer models.

Description: Full version of Risk Management, March 2007, Issue No. 10.

Description: ERM has methodology for quantifying the risk to capital, but to determine optimal capital, the impact of capital level on firm value is needed. This gets into the realm of valuation. Also capital allocation provides risk quantification for business units, but comparing return among units is fundamentally a risk-pricing exercise. When considering risk pricing, optimal returns on allocated capital are not necessarily constant across business units. The current ERM methodology, as well as actuarial literature on valuation and pricing, are reviewed, and possible directions for application of pricing and valuation methods to risk management problems are outlined.

Description: There have been continual advances in the modeling of financial series but most are aimed at the pricing of derivatives. Different criteria are needed for development of scenarios for risk management. Some recent methods will be reviewed with an eye on risk-management applications, including using the simulated method of moments to parameterize multifactor models, fractional differencing and other methods to model series with persistent autocorrelation, and models to flatten out the volatility smile, such as jump-diffusion models. These methods will be illustrated with applications to inflation, interest rates, equity prices and exchange rates.

Description: Full French version of Risk Management, March 2007, Issue No. 2007.