Description: Discussion of the separate and joint effects of obesity and diabetes on disability and mortality, and ways these effects can be used to improved insurance pricing and reserving, reverse the increasing rates of obesity and diabetes, and improve current projections of disability and mortality risks.

Description: Presented at Living to 100 Symposium, January 2011. This article estimates the impact of obesity and diabetes on disability and mortality for those older than 65 using the 2004 National Long Term Care Survey with disability based on the Health Insurance Accountability and Portability Act's Activities of Daily Living and Cognitive Impairment triggers.

Description: This report estimates sex-specific trends in HIPAA ADL disability between 1984 and 2004 using the National Long Term Care Survey (NLTCS); estimates age-standardized 20-year changes in ADL and cognitive impairment (CI) among the U.S. elderly using the HIPAA CI trigger; estimates the joint distribution of cognitive impairment (CI) and ADL disability among aged Medicare enrollees using the HIPAA disability triggers.

Description: This paper generalizes the life table to include the effects of observed and unobserved tine-varying health-related covariates using a longitudinal form of the Grade of Membership model to specify and estimate a multivariate model of the trajectories of disability and mortality among elderly respondents to the NLTCS of 1984, 1989, 1994, and 1999. From 2005 Living to 100 and Beyond Monograph, M-LI05-1.

Description: This presentation is a panel discussion, session 107PD, from the 2004 Spring Meeting of the Society of Actuaries, held May 19-21 in Anaheim, CA. Research results from the National Long-Term Care Survey and other surveys of the general elderly population indicate that age-specific morbidity [functional disability] prevalence rates have dropped significantly since 1982. The panelists quantify the nature of the temporal trends in disease morbidity and functional disability, noting that what is really new in this session is looking at the joint impact of changes in disability and mortality. They illustrate the potential impact of these temporal trends on long-term care insurance LTCI pricing and valuation, and provide some guidance as to how this material can be used by LTCI actuaries. Discussion from participants is included. From the Record of Society of Actuaries, Volume 30, No. 1.

Description: Presented at Living to 100 symposium January 2002. This paper evaluates age and sex specific patterns of change in underlying and multiple cause of death reports for the period 1980-1998 for 14 leading causes of death at ages 65 and older. Changes in four types of mortality measures will be analyzed: 1 underlying cause death rates 2 multiple cause death rates 3 associated cause death rates and 4 death rates based on the joint occurrences of multiple cause conditions. Implications of the results are discussed in the context of existing models for analyzing and forecasting future mortality patterns in the U.S.

Description: The abstract for the paper Trajectories of Disability and Mortality Among the U.S. Elderly Population: Evidence from the 1984-1999 NLTCS.

Description: Tables used for the Underlying and Multiple Cause Mortality at Advanced Ages: United States 1980-1998 paper.

Description: Paper estimates the burden of chronic disability on the U.S. elderly population, using sex-specific measures of long-term care LTC service use, intensity and costs.

Description: This report contains estimates of incidence and continuance rates from the general population using data available from the National Long–Term Care Surveys. This report was done by a subcommittee of the Society's Long–Term Care Experience Committee and reflects work done primarily at the Duke University Center for Demographic Studies. This is a ZIP file containing main report, all appendices, tables, and figures from the study and model.