Announcement: SOA congratulates the new ASAs and CERAs for May 2024.

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  • How credible is a predictive model?
    Eileen S. Burns One of the outstanding questions the life insurance industry must face in the adoption of ... note the open mathematical questions we face, and report on a few recent publications offering specific ...

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    • Authors: Eileen Burns
    • Date: Aug 2018
    • Competency: External Forces & Industry Knowledge>Actuarial theory in business context
    • Publication Name: Predictive Analytics and Futurism Newsletter
    • Topics: Modeling & Statistical Methods>Credibility theory; Predictive Analytics
  • Logistic GLM Credibility
    and that 1,082 of them die. Our estimate of mortality among this cohort would be approximately 0.0108 ... confident that the true mortality lies within 5 percent of the estimated mortality. In probabilistic terms ...

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    • Authors: Matthias Kullowatz
    • Date: Dec 2017
    • Competency: Technical Skills & Analytical Problem Solving>Innovative solutions
    • Publication Name: Predictive Analytics and Futurism Newsletter
    • Topics: Modeling & Statistical Methods>Credibility theory