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Adapting Credibility Blended Rates to Encompass Machine Learning Predictions
Blending a more specific but highly variable estimate (group experience) and a less representative but more stable ... suggest new ways to weight multiple estimators. COVID has highlighted that in times of increased uncertainty ...- Date: Apr 2021
- Competency: Technical Skills & Analytical Problem Solving
- Publication Name: Predictive Analytics and Futurism Newsletter
- Topics: Predictive Analytics>Modeling techniques
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GET BETTER ACQUAINTED WITH YOUR KNOWN UNKNOWNS
UNKNOWNS Uncertainty of a predictive model is a fact of life that many insurers could be overlooking at their ... predictions to the number of heads expected. A mortality analysis case study illustrates how the Bayesian ...- Authors: Dan Kim, Boyang Meng
- Date: Apr 2020
- Competency: Results-Oriented Solutions
- Publication Name: Predictive Analytics and Futurism Newsletter
- Topics: Experience Studies & Data>Mortality; Predictive Analytics>Modeling techniques; Predictive Analytics>Quality control & model governance
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Modeling Extreme Events
risks), aberrations from the “normal” course of life, but we can improve our analysis by distinguishing ... floods (for property risk), a stock market crash (for life insurance) or an earthquake causing large numbers ...- Authors: Robert Jason Reed (Jason)
- Date: Jun 2021
- Competency: Technical Skills & Analytical Problem Solving
- Publication Name: Predictive Analytics and Futurism Newsletter
- Topics: Predictive Analytics>Modeling techniques
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Exploiting While Exploring: An Introduction to Bayesian Optimization
parameters for Bayesian Hyperparameter Optimization in a Life Insurance context. By Nick Hanewinckel Predictive ... the space near prior optimal results). Example—Mortality Model For our example, we will use an xgboost ...- Authors: Nicholas Hanewinckel
- Date: Jun 2021
- Competency: Results-Oriented Solutions; Technical Skills & Analytical Problem Solving
- Publication Name: Predictive Analytics and Futurism Newsletter
- Topics: Life Insurance; Predictive Analytics>Modeling techniques; Predictive Analytics>Programming languages & tools