Description: Recent trends in mortality suggest that future gains in life expectancy will occur after age 80. This fact stresses the need and the importance to obtain precise measures of mortality at the highest ages, which are always subject to uncertainty due to misreporting of age at death.

Description: This article describes techniques and models used to forecast mortality improvement and the considerations that underlie long-term mortality improvement projections in the United States.

Description: This excerpt from the 2001 Annual Report of the PBGC provides greater detail concerning the valuation of future benefits than is presented in the PBGC's annual report.

Description: This paper develops the binomial version of the Lee-Carter model and provides a comparative study of simulation strategies for assessing risk in mortality rate predictions and associated estimates of life expectancy and annuity values in both period and cohort frameworks.

Description: Centenarians persons living to age 100 and over represent a population that could be useful in identifying factors leading to long life and avoidance of fatal diseases. This study explores whether people living to 100 and beyond were any different from their peers at their middle age 30 years in terms of their physical characteristics height and body build, occupation and marital status.

Description: We propose an age-shift model to modify the LC model and deal with the problem of parameters. The proposed method attains smaller estimation errors with respect to mean absolute percentage error or mean square error. We also apply the proposed age-shift model to the mortality rates of these four countries to evaluate the longevity risk in annuity products by measuring life expectancy.

Description: This paper presents recent trends in obesity prevalence in significant population segments, including overall effects by age, gender and certain racial and ethnic groups, and discusses the ways in which obesity can influence mortality in each of these segments. It provides a synthesis of reported mortality experience relating to these behaviors by risk factors and diseases that will affect any mortality projection.

Description: The abstract for paper Mortality Improvement Select Birth Cohorts and Their Effect on Pricing Survivor Bonds.

Description: Diverse Risks 2016 Call for Essays

Description: This excerpt from the 2001 Annual Report of the Board of Trustees of the federal Old Age and Survivors Insurance and Disability Insurance Trust Funds presents the assumptions and methods underlying the actuarial estimates.