Description: This paper, first published in 1982 in the Transactions of Society of Actuaries, Vol. 34, discusses the phenomenon of durational antiselection, a commonly observed steady and seemingly irreversible increase in loss ratios on mature blocks of individual health insurance policies. The author, William F. Bluhm, constructs a model to explain the deterioration of loss ratios over time, and to quantify the cumulative antiselection effect. This paper was awarded the 1980-82 Triennial Prize. The paper includes written discussion and the author’s review of discussion.

Description: This is a transcript of a 1982 meeting of the Health Section. Includes presentation and discussion of three papers: a. Cumulative Anti-selection Theory by William F. Bluhm b. Regulatory Monitoring of Individual Health Insurance Policy Experience by John B. Cummings c. Medical Care and Services in Canada by Frank G. Reynolds From Record Vol. 8, No. 4