Description: This article describes the history and in some respects, the future of Big Data, and the tools we can use to handle it for PM and for machine learning. One such tool is Vowpal Wabbit, which sounds like something from a Bugs Bunny and Elmer Fudd cartoon (“Dwat that wabbit”), but it really is a popular approach to process a dataset of any size, as there is no need to load all the data into memory. Big data is forcing us to enhance many of our tools. So is the increased actuarial usage of stochastic-in-stochastic analyses (nested stochastic processes), which can result in unacceptably long program run times. Many of our popular computer languages are not inherently well suited for parallel computations.

Description: This article discusses data mining and the statistics of coincidence, and provides “guidelines for backtesting integrity” to help ensure results have value beyond mere coincidence. Editor’s Note: The following article originally appeared in the Winter 1998 issue of the Horizon, a publication of BARRA, Inc., and is reprinted with permission.

Description: Realizing the impact of medical errors on the U.S. health care system, the Health Section commissioned a research project to measure the annual frequency of medical errors and their total measurable direct and indirect cost to the economy.

Description: Discussion of the separate and joint effects of obesity and diabetes on disability and mortality, and ways these effects can be used to improved insurance pricing and reserving, reverse the increasing rates of obesity and diabetes, and improve current projections of disability and mortality risks.

Description: Identifying and submitting all appropriate ICD-9 diagnosis codes to CMS will result in a higher risk score for the member and increased payments to Medicare Advantage plans. Milliman's HCC prevalence study illustrates the significant variations in HCC prevalence rates by age/gender, geography, and population type and will assist plans in benchmarking the effectiveness of their own diagnosis code capture efforts.

Description: An economic analysis of bariatric surgery and health care costs supports the case for health plans to cover these procedures.

Description: Analysis of possible mathematical relationships between hospital quality and hospital billed or allowed charges or other measures, using quality data as defined by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services along with the Hospital Quality Alliance for their Hospital Quality Initiative.

Description: This predictive modeling for life insurers paper by a Deloitte research team is one of a collection of essays that examine how existing or new methods or models can be applied to the life insurance industry.

Description: This dissertation by Tia Sawhney will help you understand this issue and start measuring it, or start promoting equitable public policy.

Description: Looks at free and inexpensive resources for the novice in predictive analytics, covering the data analysis theory as well as the most commonly used languages/software used in the field.