Description: The article warns against treating the results of a stochastic model with more deference than other actuarial analysis, and describes some hidden risks involved with choice of model and calibration.

Description: Actuaries understand the technical benefits of converting their models to a modern actuarial system, such as new capabilities and upgraded technology. This article highlights additional, non-technical benefits that also come with model conversion. These benefits include advancements in attitudes and capacities among the team and across the company.

Description: A recent Society of Actuaries study calculates safety and stability for current Long Term Care Insurance premiums.

Description: In this paper we propose a model that can be used to analyze correlated claims data. In the process we introduce a class of multivariate generalized Poisson distributions. Then we present posterior distributions of its parameters. These distributions are difficult to manipulate, so we employ Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to draw random numbers from posteriors and predictive distributions. We present a collection of EXCEL VBA functions and subroutines to perform the simulations.

Description: Excerpts from a conversation with Alan Mills regarding his work in complexity science and agent-based modeling.

Description: This is the first year for appointed actuaries in the United States ot review X factors and evaluate actual morality experience that is emerging. This article atempts to provide a simpified explanation of how Monte Carlo simulation can be used by a small company to evaluate its mortality experience.

Description: This article talks about replicating portfolios, a basket of financial instruments designed to replicate, as closely as possible, the value and market sensitivity of a target portfolio of liabilities in different economic scenarios.

Description: In 2003, the American Academy of Actuaries Life Capital Adequacy Subcommittee LCAS published a set of 10,000 stochastic scenarios that was intended to be used to support the publication, “Recommended Approach for Setting Regulatory Risk-Based Capital Requirements for Variable Products with Guarantees Excluding Index Guarantees.” The primary purpose of this article is to illustrate statistical measures that can be used to evaluate stochastic simulations.

Description: This is a record of a session at the October 1975 Annual Meeting of the SOA. It discusses what can be done with a corporate model and how it can be used to solve problems. 1975 Record Vol. 1, No 4.

Description: Panelists discuss the methods HMOs employ to measure their providers' quality of care, outcomes, compliance with best practice guidelines, and cost control. From the Record of the Society of Actuaries, Vol. 25, No. 2.