Description: The article warns against treating the results of a stochastic model with more deference than other actuarial analysis, and describes some hidden risks involved with choice of model and calibration.

Description: Actuaries understand the technical benefits of converting their models to a modern actuarial system, such as new capabilities and upgraded technology. This article highlights additional, non-technical benefits that also come with model conversion. These benefits include advancements in attitudes and capacities among the team and across the company.

Description: Explores the open vs. closed systems debate with regards to actuarial modeling and exposes the over-simplification. Valuable for anyone who uses models.

Description: A recent Society of Actuaries study calculates safety and stability for current Long Term Care Insurance premiums.

Description: In this paper we propose a model that can be used to analyze correlated claims data. In the process we introduce a class of multivariate generalized Poisson distributions. Then we present posterior distributions of its parameters. These distributions are difficult to manipulate, so we employ Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to draw random numbers from posteriors and predictive distributions. We present a collection of EXCEL VBA functions and subroutines to perform the simulations.

Description: Excerpts from a conversation with Alan Mills regarding his work in complexity science and agent-based modeling.

Description: This is the first year for appointed actuaries in the United States ot review X factors and evaluate actual morality experience that is emerging. This article atempts to provide a simpified explanation of how Monte Carlo simulation can be used by a small company to evaluate its mortality experience.

Description: This article talks about replicating portfolios, a basket of financial instruments designed to replicate, as closely as possible, the value and market sensitivity of a target portfolio of liabilities in different economic scenarios.

Description: The purpose of this paper is to explore a methodology for choosing among techniques for managing contribution volatility in defined- benefit pension plans. A frequently used – and as often criticized – method for managing contribution volatility is to base actuarial cost on smoothed assets. Our goal in this paper is to develop a methodology for measuring and evaluating the quantitative impact of competing asset smoothing policies. We proceed by investigating a series of basic pension metrics, evaluating the characteristics of each using a simulated pension plan. We then use normalized and weighted combinations of these metrics to determine an optimal smoothing policy.

Description: At this session 114 PD of the Toronto Spring Meeting, participants learn how to create efficient simulation models in Excel for various problems arising in finance and insurance. From the Record of the Society of Actuaries, Volume 27, No. 2, Session