Description: This article summarizes the presentation of the study made at the 2014 ILTCI Conference held on March 16–19, 2014 in Orlando, Fla.

Description: The dynamics of morbidity and mortality are central concerns in actuarial practice, having major implications for life, health, pension, and long-term care (LTC) insurers; for Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security programs; for public policy planners; and for career and retirement planning among the general public. Two aspects of these dynamics—the compression of morbidity and the compression of mortality—are critically important to a proper understanding of the past, which, in turn, are essential for developing valid forecasts of the future. This paper reviews these dynamics, describes how they are related, shows how they apply to changes in mortality over the past century and to changes in morbidity over the past 30 years, and discusses their implications for future changes in the United States.

Description: The dynamics of morbidity and mortality are central concerns in actuarial practice, having major implications for life, health, pension, and long-term care (LTC) insurers; for Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security programs; for public policy planners; and for career and retirement planning among the general public. Two aspects of these dynamics—the compression of morbidity and the compression of mortality—are critically important to a proper understanding of the past, which, in turn, are essential for developing valid forecasts of the future. This paper reviews these dynamics, describes how they are related, shows how they apply to changes in mortality over the past century and to changes in morbidity over the past 30 years, and discusses their implications for future changes in the United States

Description: Session 5a discussant comments