Description: This article presents recent perspectives on the understanding and measurement of pandemic risk.

Description: In this paper the author introduces a generalization of Bondy development and demonstrates its descriptive powers. Generalized Bondy development facilitates estimation of development factors, is easily computed, and affords excellent fits to observed development ratios. From the Actuarial Research Clearing House ARCH 1989 Vol. 2.

Description: This paper illustrates a current approach to capital allocation, referred to herein as Tail Contribution Analysis TCA, using it to evaluate the impact of changes in an insurer’s operations by allocating capital to individual lines of business. It then highlights a common problem in the implementation of the procedure arising from reserve volatility and briefly notes the failure of the methodology to account for a firm’s changing levels of risk under various strategies. Finally, it introduces an alternative method for analyzing business segments and strategies called Economic Profit Analysis EPA. We will discuss EPA’s key feature, “volatility replication,” an intuitively appealing process of building investor expectations and capital market information into the risk-and-return measurements used to evaluate strategic decisions. Finally, we will illustrate the benefit of using EPA in overcoming the problems of TCA and thereby providing concise reliable information for business decision making.

Description: Summary of the SOA research project on PBR Simplified Methods. Describes the multi-risk scenario generator, central estimate assumptions, assumption objectivity measures, and regulatory demonstrations per VM-20.

Description: Excess ratio refers to the calculation of expected losses in excess of some stated limit. This paper suggests methods for calculating excess ratios in the practical situation without the laborious calculations which the techniques of Dr. Kahn's paper, 'An Introduction to Collective Risk Theory and Its Application to Stop Loss Reinsurance,' would seem to require, and as an alternative to the Monte Carlo simulation technique which would also seem to be impractical to use on a case by case basis in experience rating.