Description: Regression to the mean is a phenomenon that arises when comparing sequential data points. It states that when an initial observation is extreme or an outlier, future observations will be closer to the average. Health care actuaries need to understand and be able to mitigate the effects of regression to the mean to avoid misapplying predictive models or misstating measurements of historical effects.

Description: This article provides a brief overview of the current state of machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) as they apply to actuarial science, including discussion around the integration of actuarial judgment with ML and AI. It concludes with an example of explainable ML through a python tool known as SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations), which is able to explain the key drivers behind individual ML or AI predictions.

Description: This chapter focuses on creating practical models that aid in the prediction of the risk of readmission to a specific hospital within 30 days of discharge for Medicare patients, to aid in the identification and stratification of at-risk patients for hospitals considering building an intervention program in a cost-effective manner. For readers who wish to develop their own predictive model, a dataset is provided on the Actexmadriver.com website, and R code is provided in the appendix to this chapter.