Description: This paper, first published in 1982 in the Transactions of Society of Actuaries, Vol. 34, discusses the phenomenon of durational antiselection, a commonly observed steady and seemingly irreversible increase in loss ratios on mature blocks of individual health insurance policies. The author, William F. Bluhm, constructs a model to explain the deterioration of loss ratios over time, and to quantify the cumulative antiselection effect. This paper was awarded the 1980-82 Triennial Prize. The paper includes written discussion and the author’s review of discussion.

Description: Traditional methods of addressing reserves and liabilities have failed to cope with the problems of escalating claim costs, frequent rate increases, and different opinions as to what liabilities should be recognized. This paper reexamines these issues, discusses shortcomings of current methods and proposes a new approach to the total subject. From Transactions of Society of Actuaries 1985, Vol. 37.