Description: This session will cover assumption determination for annuities under VM-21 with emphasis on contract holder behavior assumptions, prudent estimate mortality assumptions and measuring credibility.

Description: Important tools used in property & casualty P&C insurance—predictive modeling and data mining—can be applied to more effectively model policyholder behavior risks in variable annuity VA contracts. In this article, a case study is used to demonstrate how a predictive modeling approach can improve upon traditional methods used to model VA lapse behavior.