Description: This is the fourth paper on n-year roll forward reserve financing of public benefit systems, especially Old-Age, Survivors and disability Insurance OASDI, prepared by University of Michigan faculty and students. As the papers have developed, some ideas have been simplified, while others have become more complex. It is concluded that the theoretical model requires further attention. This research can be extended to expand our knowledge of OASDI financing and the applicability of n-year roll forward reserve financing.

Description: Mortality rates for a local community are desired in conjunction with the calculation of health-adjusted life expectancy HALE, an indicator of population health.

Description: The paper is an individual risk theoretical examination of annuities for the aged. Through retirement systems, social security and insurance plans, annuities for the aged are a very significant matter and are worthy of inquiry. From the Actuarial Research Clearing House 1992 Vol. 2.

Description: This is the abstract of a paper that presents a Bayesian model for analyzing time-dependent data. The model allows for the possibility of a shift in the level and/or a shift in the variance of the process at all time points. An example of simulated data will be shown as well as the results of four macroeconomic time series data: inflation, interest, unemployment, and wage. The fitted data of the model is compared against the actual through the use of prediction intervals and the creation of a new measure, called the 'modified Akaike Information Criterion'.

Description: Abstract from a paper that describes results from a hierarchical Bayesian statistical model which predicts the probability of Non-Acceptable Claim, an unnecessary hospital stay, using hospital discharge claim records as inputs.